Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with outside markets being mixed and U.S. harvest on going under favorable weather.

Grain Market News

Crude Oil

Crude oil has been in a significant downtrend going back to March highs and then another secondary high posted in June.

The $12 rally off the lows last week is a big rally in a very short period of time and the crude oil market is at least threatening to break out of that downtrend.

5.3 billion bushels of corn being used in the ethanol industry crude oil does have a significant impact on the corn market.

DOW Jones

The stock market has been trending lower, within that trend its ben very volatile.

The market has rallied about 1600 points and the stock market may also have made a significant low for the moment.

Time will tell if we can rally further.

U.S. Dollar Index

A higher dollar is bearish for commodities because it makes U.S. products more expensive to global buyers.

So, the big rally and long-term rally in the U.S. dollar has been a negative factor.

Last week we hit a high of 114.74 but since then the dollar has fallen sharply.

We are sill in a long-term uptrend but the recent fall of nearly 5% from last week’s high is certainly good news and has provided some support for the grain markets this week.

The trend in the outside markets has been in a negative trend recently but this week many of the outside markets including gold have made a major turn.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

This map shows there has been 0 precipitation for most of the belt over the past week and some areas have seen very little or no precipitation for two weeks.

There has been some precipitation in the central and northern plains, but the heart of the belt and the bulk of the belt has been dry.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows virtually no precipitation for the bulk of the belt in the next 5 days.

There are some rains showing up for next week which also could continue towards the peak of harvest, specifically for beans.

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production improved at 889 thousand barrels per day, that’s good news.

Its still a very low number and we are still well below last years level and well below the level needed to reach USDA’s corn use estimate.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks were lower which is also good news down to 21.693 million barrels.

Weekly US Gasoline Consumption

Gasoline consumption has been running below the year ago level for the past 6 weeks and about 13 of the last 15 weeks we’ve seen gasoline below the year ago level.

That could produce head winds for ethanol production if we don’t see that trend change.

US Monthly Ethanol Exports

Monthly ethanol exports have been declining since the April highs and projections are that the September ethanol exports will actually be below the year ago level.

Much of that is because Brazilian ethanol currently is about 30 cents per gallon cheaper than U.S. ethanol.

StoneX Survey October 2022

USDA will release its October crop report next week on Wednesday and private estimates are beginning to come out.

SToneX came out with a corn yield of 173.9, that’s 1.4 bushels per acre larger than USDA reported in last month’s September report.

SToneX came out with a yield for soybeans at 51.3, that’s larger than USDA’s September number of 50.5.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices are stuck in a range, and they have been in a range for about 6-weeks now.

That range is from 5.50-5.60 on the low end and just below $7 on the high end.

The market has been chopping back and forth within that range for the past 6 weeks.

When we look at that range our current price level is close to the middle of that range.

Technical indicators are pointed upward but it’s worth noting that they are dead centered in the middle of a neutral range as well.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also have carved out a range which is from just above 13.50 to just above $15.

We’ve been in that range going back to late July and very choppy.

A combination of the peak U.S. soybean harvest combined with favorable weather for Brazilian harvesting and then add in negative stock numbers from the USDA last week on Friday, that has all pushed soybeans down towards the lower end of that range.

Given the 1.40 plus fall in the market, technical indicators near zero, and seasonally we see our lows in early October we believe the soybean market could be making some seasonal lows as we speak.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are in an uptrend, a very consistent uptrend.

USDA’s small grain summary and final wheat production numbers, which shows 133-million-bushel loss in wheat production, caused the market to push to the $10 level.

The market is now chopping at or just below that level the last 4 days.

The wheat market could push down towards chart support at 9.52, but at this point even a move to that level would keep wheat in an overall uptrend.

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