Closing Market Comments October 11, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today ahead of tomorrow’s important USDA October crop report.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections were very disappointing at just 18 million bushels.

That’s well below last year and well below the level needed to reach the export forecast.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans improved nicely but they are still well below the year ago level.

Last year we had over 60 million bushels exported, last week just 35 million bushels.

We need to see soybean inspections advancing dramatically over the next few weeks if we are going to reach the USDA export forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports down form last week at 24 million bushels but still a good level and well above the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.  

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production 2022

Corn is down 6 cent a bushel from last month.

Soybeans unchanged from the last month number.

Corn production down 53 million bushels from last month.

Soybeans virtually unchanged from a month ago.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2022

Corn is expected to fall, down 92 million bushels from last month.

Soybeans expected to be up 40 million bushels from last month.

Wheat stocks down 47 million bushels from a month ago.

Global corn expected to fall by 2.9 million metric tons, beans expected to increase by 0.7mmt, and wheat expected to be down 1.5mmt.

USDA Corn Yield Estimate

In September the USDA estimated corn at 172.5, the trade is looking for a number just below 172.

USDA Soybean Yield Estimate

Last month USDA estimated soybeans at 50.5 bushels per acre, which is what we are expecting.

US Interior Basis

On the soybean basis we’ve gone from 2.50 over the board to about board level in just 3-4 weeks.

We are now down to a typical basis for harvest and typically it’s the early October timeframe that has the cheapest basis of the year.

Corn cash basis was 70-75 cents above the board and now we are trading at about 10 cents below the board, and we are back down to a typical seasonal level for early October.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

There has been very little rainfall over the last 2 weeks, therefore harvest has been racing ahead at a rapid pace.

7-day Precipitation Forecast

Over the next 7 days much of the western belt into the plains should have continued excellent harvest conditions.

Even in the eastern belt where there is some rain, it is not heavy.

Western belt should be wide open, eater belt some minor delays.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices posted a new high yesterday above 7.06 and we have pulled back a little bit.

The trend is still a very sold uptrend.

Chart support initially comes in where the 10- and 20-day moving averages around 6.80, down 13 cents from today’s close.

Initial overhead resistance is yesterday’s high at 7.06.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are in a downtrend off the highs posted in early September at 15.08.

But over the last few days we have started to see the soybean market showing signs of wanting to turn higher and the technical indicators showing signs as well.

The chart and technical are hinting that maybe we saw some harvest lows established Thursday and Friday last week and its possible this market could test initial overhead resistance around 14.12 if we don’t get bearish news tomorrow.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices clearly in an uptrend although within that uptrend we have head 6-7 pullbacks in 6-7 weeks.

Therefore, even though the trend is up, we rally up make new highs and then we pull back and so on.

We mad new highs yesterday at 10.37, but now we pulled back.

Chart support is down around the 9.75-9.80 level if this trend continues.

Questions or Comments