Closing Market Comments October 12, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today following USDA’s October crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production 2022

Corn yield was right on the average trade guess and down 6/10 of a bushel from last month and down over 5 bushels from last year.

Soybeans came in 7/10 of a bushel below what the trade was expecting and 7/10 below last month and down nearly 2 bushels from last year.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2022

USDA’s corn stock is at 1.172, it was down from last month, but it wasn’t as low as what the trade was expecting.

Soybeans were unchanged from last month, but 40 million bushels below what the trade was expecting.

Wheat was 13 million bushels above trade expectations, but down 34 million bushels from last month.  

On the world ending stocks corn was slightly below the average guess, soybeans slightly above the average, and wheat slightly above.

Corn S&D

Acreage unchanged, yield was lowered, beginning stocks lowered, and production was lowered.

Imports was raised and stocks were down from last year and last month.

Soybean S&D

Acreage was left unchanged, yields lowered, beginning stocks were raised 34 million bushels, and production dropped.

Exports were reduced and ending stocks were left unchanged.

Wheat S&D

Acreage was lowered 1.3 million acres, harvested by 2 million acres, yield reduced by 1 bushel per acre, and production was down.

Imports were increased by 10 million bushels, feed reduced by 30 million bushels, and exports reduced by 50 million bushels.

Ending stocks did decrease, but the trade was expecting it to be lower.

Grain Market News

World Wheat Fob Prices

US wheat exports likely to be relatively small.

World Corn Fob Basis

Our corn basis levels are higher than Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine.

Therefore, our corn exports are suffering at this time.

Brazil: Soybean Acreage/Production

The South American soybean crop is significantly larger than the US crop.

Brazil: Corn Acreage/Production

Corn is up about 400 million bushels from last year.

If Brazil has decent weather, they will have record production for both corn and soybeans.


Brazil is mostly adequate root zone soil moisture.

Argentina is in drought conditions, so that’s an area that needs to be monitored.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices fell on the report today, but then bounced and closed slightly higher keeping the overall trend in place.

Technical indicators are pointed upward, the chart is still in an uptrend.

We are not overly bullish, but the supply and demand does remain tight.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had a big push to the upside up to 14.14.

The close was at 13.96, but nonetheless the chart and technical indicators look good.

No sign of topping action right now.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices remain in an uptrend.

We did pull back, in fact todays low at 9.67 is 70 cents below the high posted on Monday.

Overall, this market continues to chop back and forth in an overall up trending channel.

Unfortunately, the chart has turned lower in the short term with the technical turning lower.

Questions or Comments