Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished lower today, there was a lack of bullish news, but the outside market took a big hit today spilling over into the grains.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
We did not get bullish news for export sales while the supply side is bullish the demand side is quite negative.
This week’s corn export sales at 200 thousand tons are very disappointing, well below last years sales around a million metric tons.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales
Soybean also disappointing at 724 thousand tons, but it did meet the USDA forecast.
But this is the time of the year we should be having much larger export sales and that’s not happening which is disappointing.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat sales were good as we moved through the summer but recently U.S. wheat has become the most expensive wheat in the world.
So, this has virtually shut off our exports.
Wheat is well below the level of last year and well below the level needed.
Grain Market News
December Corn
Corn prices up near $7 are about $1.60-1.70 above where they were last year.
You can see from the chart our prices are certainly factoring in the bullish supply news but if the demand remains negative prices may struggle to go higher.
November Soybeans
Bean prices very close to the $14 level the last couple days compared to 12.20 last year.
Our current prices are much above where we have been the last couple of years.
The marketplace is factoring in the bullish supply news but if exports must be reduced, ending stocks could start increasing and that would be considered negative for grain prices.
KC December Wheat
This year’s wheat prices hit $10 this week, we are currently trading lower, but last year we were trading around 7.45.
If the demand doesn’t start to improve it could start send U.S. stock higher which is considered negative news.
South America
Over the past 30 days Brazilian weather has been pretty good.
Most of Brazil has had above normal rains, exception would be a little below in the very far north and below normal in the very far south.
Vegetation health versus a year ago, most of Brazil has better vegetation health index.
Its a different story in Argentina where drought is ongoing and vegetation health has been below normal as well.
South America is mixed with ongoing drought in Argentina but good weather in Brazil.
South America Rainfall Forecast
The first week of the forecast today through October 20th has good rains in the southern portion and some of central Brazil and a little dryer to the northeast and southwest.
The second week promises better rain for much of Brazil, we would have very few issues if this forecast verifies.
Argentina’s forecast still looks mostly dry in the first week and the second week is hitting at some better rain.
There are hints that Argentina could start seeing better rains towards the end of October.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices have been stuck in a range most of this week with the high set Monday and the two set Wednesday.
6.90-7.00 almost all week and todays close was disappointing.
We are still in an uptrend, but we are now again challenging the lower end of the range, if that doesn’t hold that could signal a move down to 5.50-5.60.
Technical indicators did hook today based on the disappointing close.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices started out the day good but then closed lower.
Soybeans still look good from the chart rallying off the lows which could be harvest lows.
Technical indicators have been looking good, but todays disappointing close has them hooking a little bit.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been in that long term U shape bottom for quite some time.
We achieved our initial target of 10-10.10, in fact hit 10.37 this week.
That doesn’t mean wheat can’t go higher but in the near term the market is trying to break through chart support.
Today was disappointing because we broke through chart support, but we closed near the daily lows.
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