Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly mixed today, no real clear direction in today’s trade.

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought continues in most of the western United States including almost all of the U.S. plains and much of the western corn belt.

It’s these conditions and the fact that drought has gotten worse over the last couple months that likely resulted in the lower corn and soybean production.

Class Change

From the mid July to mid-October timeframe anything yellow or tan is where drought has gotten worse, in fact some areas in brown the drought has gotten worse by 4 classes.

Some drought has been removed in portions of the eastern belt and Texas.

Current Conditions

Current conditions are cold for the central US, lows mostly in the 20s and highs in the 30s and low 40s.

The cold air is sinking to the south over the next couple of days.

High pressure is keeping most of the U.S. corn and bean belt dry, which will allow a rapid harvest.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

From southeast Nebraska, through Missouri, much of Illinois, and northern Indiana has seen a half inch or maybe isolated inch totals.

Further to the north and west into the central and western plains, northwestern belt, and northern plains there has been no rain.

Harvest is virtually wrapping up in the western and northwestern belt.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

Our 5-day forecast shows rain along the great lakes, outside of that no rain expected over the next 5 days.

This will allow harvest to wrap up in the northwest belt and push aggressively forward in much of the eastern belt, Ohio valley, and down into the delta.

U.S. soybean harvest has already seen its peak and corn is likely at peak right now.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn at 17.6 million bushes, very disappointing with one of the lowest totals for mid-October over the last 6-7 years.

Corn export inspections have been below the year ago level the past 4 weeks, and we need to see a big increase in export sales and shipments going forward or we are at risk to seeing USDA lower its export forecast further.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans exports exploded to the upside, which is good news.

Unfortunately, at 69 million bushels we are still well below last year.

With the Mississippi river near all time lows, it could be a challenge to reach the past numbers.

Year to date soybean inspections are down 22.6%, USDA is projecting exports will be down 5%.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports dropped significantly, but that’s not unusual for early October.

As corn and soybean advances and those new crops work their way in, capacity is used primarily for corn and beans.

We should see a gradual improvement in the wheat as we move into the heart of the wintertime.

Year to date inspections are up just 3/10 of 1%, slightly above USDA’s target.

NOPA Soybean Crush

The crush number came in at 158.1 million bushels, up from last year but not a record.

Grain Market News

December Corn Chart

Corn prices are still in an uptrend off the July lows.

We made a new high last week at 7.06, but since then the market has been drifting lower now challenging chart support and moving averages.

Corn needs to find support in the 6.80 area, if not 6.51 is the target that many would start to look for.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also made new highs last week up to 14.14, but since then have drifted lower.

Today prices were able to close steady to fractionally higher.

The chart looks good, but we do need to see a higher close in the next few days or risk the market turning lower.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices made new highs last week up to 12.37 but since then have pushed lower.

In fact, the market has moved 89 cents lower over the past week.

Now wheat is testing chart support, if wheat cannot hold this chart support, then 9.21 would become the next layer of cart support.

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