Closing Market Comments October 25, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with corn and soybeans bouncing back on firm outside markets this afternoon.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Yield

The U.S. corn yield increases by about 2 bushels per acre per year and if you look at this trend it has been very consistent over the last 46 years.

This year’s yield from the October crop report at 171.9 bushels per acre is well below trend and that’s been one of the bullish items allowing the corn market to rally.

We can see the last 4 years we’ve been below trend and the previous 5 years before that we were above trend.

Corn Yield- Deviation from Trend

The zero line means we reached the trend line yield, any bars above that are years where the yield was above trend and anything below it is years below trend.

Trend line yield next year is 183 bushels per acre.

US. Soybean Yield

Soybeans at 51.5, soybean increases by 6/10 of a bushel every year.

USDA is projecting this years yield at 49.8 bushels per acre which is well below tend.

Soybean Yield- Deviation from Trend

This year the 49.8-bushel per acre yield is 3.4% below trend.

Only 2 years over the last 9 have seen yields below trend.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Harvest

We started out relatively slow but extremely dry weather has allowed the corn harvest to go from below average to above average as of yesterday.

Corn harvest is now 61% complete compared to 54% for the 13-year average.

U.S. Soybean Harvest

Soybeans started out a little below average, but the dry weather has allowed the soybean harvest to race ahead and be one of the quicker harvests over the past 13 years.

Current Conditions

We are getting some rain in the central U.S. which will slow harvest for corn and soybeans.

But the fact that soil in many regions is very dry, even an inch of rain won’t keep farmers out of the field.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The 7 days does show we got 2-3 inches of rain in parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.

We will start to fill in some of this area with the rain falling today.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows that anywhere from 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible across much of the central US.

Much of the northwestern belt into the central northern plains looks to remain mostly dry over the next 7 days

December Corn Chart

Corn prices remain stuck in a very narrow range for a little over a week now.

Corn prices did close firmer allowing the technical indicators to show signs of wanting to turn.

Let’s keep in mind overall the market is still stuck mostly in a sideways range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also have been stuck in a narrow range over the past month

That range is near the lower end with prices still appearing to that maybe we set a harvest low at 13.50.

Currently, we have a downtrend line in place at 15.08 and chart support at the harvest lows of 13.50.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have also started to consolidate.

Over the past week we have seen the market in a narrow range.

Prices did rally about a $1.30 off the August lows to the 10.37 high posted in early October, the market pulled back and prices now stabilizing.

Wheat has technical indicators the most oversold since July

Questions or Comments