Closing Market Comments October 26, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets continue to be relatively quiet with prices stuck in a narrow range as a lack of fresh news not giving the market any specific direction.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production very good at 1.033 million barrels per day.

That’s up for the fourth week in a row and finally we are at a level just above the level needed to reach USDA’s current corn use estimate.  

Our year-to-date ethanol production is down 3.1%, and USDA estimated that corn use of ethanol would be down 1%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Weekly stocks of fuel ethanol were up this week to 22.28 million barrels.

That’s 11.8% above the level from last year.

Bottom line today’s weekly ethanol report was considered neutral or maybe slightly friendly.

November Ethanol Swaps

November swaps trading in Chicago around 2.41 per gallon.

That’s up nicely from last month where we were at 2.20 and keep in mind that gasoline futures have rallied sharply over the last month trading over 2.90 per gallon.

Grain Market News

November Crop Report Yield Changes

In general, the trade is not expecting much for changes in the November crop report.

When we look at history there is an opportunity for USDA to make some changes.

Last year soybean yield dropped 3/10 of a bushel and a couple of 1-bushel changes in both 2018 and 2020.

In a 6 year stretch we had 4 years have increases.

Last year corn increased by a half bushel per acre in November, but we saw some 1-2 bushel per acre declines the previous 3 years.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Rain fell on Monday and Tuesday cross the central portion of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

1-2 inches common and isolated heavier in Missouri, Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma.

We ae not hearing of much storm damage and the rain delays will be relatively brief.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Forecast shows mostly dry conditions for the U.S. corn and bean belt.

We could see delays down in the south-central U.S. which is mostly on double crop beans.

South America Precipitation Forecast

The first week of the forecast shows a continuation of good rains in the Brazil region while Argentina following rains over the last couple days looks to dry out again.

Week 2 in Argentina and southern Brazil look to be dry with decent rain in central and northern Brazil.


Root zone soil moisture for Brazil is mostly in good shape. A little dry in east central but that’s not a crop heavy region.

Argentina has been experiencing drought, so they do have dry conditions.

Brazil is mostly in good shape while Argentina certainly needs more rain going forward.

Vegetation Index vs. Last Year

Brazil mostly pretty good compared to a year ago with a little dryer to the far north.

Argentina mostly below a year ago as you can see most of Argentina growing region is in tan which means vegetation health is below last year.

December Corn Chart

Corn did close a little lower today which was disappointing.

It was still an outside day up meaning we took out the high posted yesterday.

In fact, today’s high was the highest in a little over a week.

Technical indicators showing signs of leveling out but have not seen a clear breakout to the upside.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been chopping back and forth.

Currently overhead resistance is in the lower $14 range where our 40-day moving average and down line trend come into play.

December Wheat Chart

Wheat after rallying over $2 in August-October the market fell back $1 and now we are starting to find support around the 9.25 level.

KC wheat was able to close a nickel higher today and this was enough to start a turning process on the technical.

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