Closing Market Comments October 28, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed in a very choppy and quiet trade which has been the case for the last couple weeks.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Exports

USDA is projecting that corn exports will be down 13% this year.

This chart also shows export inspections, accumulated exports, outstanding sales, and total commitment.

What’s already shipped which is inspections or accumulated exports are running 28% below a year ago and below the USDA target.

Outstanding sales are down 57.8% from a year ago and total commitments are down 52.7%.

That means the amount of corn that we have on the books this year is less than half the amount we had on the books last year at this time.

USDA lowered the export forecast, but November could drop down again by lowering exports.

U.S. Soybean Exports

Our shipments were disappointing down 20-25% from a year ago but big exports the last couple of weeks has allowed what has actually shipped to be getting back close to what USDA is projecting.

USDA is projecting exports at 2.045 billion bushels which is down 5.2% from last year.

Our outstanding sales are 9% above the year ago level and out commitments are above a year ago levels.  

U.S. Wheat Exports

At this point shipments are running above USDA’s target, outstanding sales and total commitments are running a little below.

We believe after USDA’s lowering of exports last month that USDA will leave its estimate unchanged in November.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Brazil is mostly favorable rainfall in week 1, a little bit lighter rains in week 2.

Argentina looks dry in the first week of the forecast with a little bit of rain in the second week.

Temperature Anomaly

Brazil is below normal temperatures, with some areas much below normal.

Argentina is pretty close to average.

The weather overall is viewed as good in South America.  

We do want to point out that weather can change very quickly so we need to continue to monitor South American weather.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Rainfall in Texas moving through the southern states and upward into the delta and even southern portions of the Ohio valley.

That could slow some of the double crop bean harvest while most of the belt should remain mostly dry and harvest should be wrapping up.

We are hoping some of the rains that fall in the Mississippi valley are heavy enough to increase water levels on the Mississippi River.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Rainfall this week which was mostly Monday-Thursday show some good rains that allowed an increase in water levels around ST. Louis.

Th eastern belt got some rain delays for a couple days while a good share of the plains into the far western belt likely only minor delays.

Drought Monitor

Drought conditions in the western belt and plains this summer.

The lack of rain in September and October has allowed drought conditions to start developing in the eastern belt, Ohio Valley, and the Delta.

This is not a major factor at this time.

Forecast Chart

If this forecast for sea surface water levels is correct it would lead many meteorologists to believe it would allow somewhat normal weather.  

December Corn Chart

Corn prices continue to be stuck in a very narrow range, we did post new highs by just fraction Wednesday and Thursday.

For the most part we have a 15-cent trading range from 6.74-6.89.

That range has been in place for 2 weeks now and today’s lower close did turn the technical lower.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans have also been stuck in a narrow range for the last couple weeks.

13.57-13.97 which is just a 40-cent trading range and could remain stuck in this range until we get fresh news.

The technical indicators are stuck in a neutral position as well.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices were stuck in a narrow range for the last couple of weeks but today we broke out to the downside trading as low as 9.15.

The new low does extend the downtrend off the highs posted in October.

We are not bearish wheat from these levels and technical at 0 but it was a negative day on the chart today.

Questions or Comments