Closing Market Comments November 1, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today as ongoing uncertainty regarding Ukraine’s shipping corridor and unrest in Brazil providing support.

Grain Market News

Temperature Anomaly

Anything in the blue is below normal and anything in red is above normal.

We can see some extremely cold temperatures in parts of central or southern Brazil.

Tuesday’s High Temperatures

Todays high in portions of southern Brazil are projected on the upper 40s and low 50s.

Their lows tonight could get frosty.

Yesterday morning we can see the low temperature at 0 degrees Celsius or 32 Fahrenheit.

South American Precipitation Forecast

From a precipitation stand point the first week of the forecast shows dry weather across most of Argentina’s growing area as well as Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern and western Brazil.

Argentina got a little bit of drought relief last week but its still ongoing.

The areas in Brazil that could be dry in Brazil next week mostly have adequate moisture.

The second week shows improving rain in Brazil and Argentina.

European Rapeseed

After trading in a sideways range for a few months we have broken out to the upside.

Paris Milling Wheat

Paris milling wheat prices have bounced significantly and are now approaching the upper end of overhead resistance.

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

1-2 or even 2-4 inches of rain possible through the central U.S. including the western corn belt and eastern plains.

The rains will be welcome in almost all of these areas and certainly could benefit the Mississippi River.

U.S. Corn Harvest

We are 76% complete, that compares to 61% last week and well ahead of the 13-year average.

U.S. Soybean Harvest

Soybean harvest is 88% complete, ahead of last year and well ahead of the 13-year average.

Winter Wheat Crop Condition

We got our first update from UDSA regarding the winter wheat crop conditions.

The initial rating for U.S. winter wheat came in at 28% good to excellent, the lowest rating we had for the first week of the year and prior to this year was 40% good to excellent in 2013.

By far a record low beginning rating.

We will note that there is not an extreme correlation between initial winter wheat conditions and final yields.

December Corn Chart

Corn chart looks good, today was an inside day meaning we did not take outside yesterdays high.

The corn chart has turned up with overhead resistance at 7.06.

We closed at 6.97, so overhead resistance about 8-9 cents above todays close.

Technical indicators have turned upward as well.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices appear to have made a harvest low at 13.50 in October.

We did test the low a few weeks later but now the market has turned significantly higher.

The chart looks good, technical indicators look good as well.

We are getting into the overbought range.

Many chart watchers are eyeing up multiple tops in the 14.84 to 15.08 range.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have also shot to the upside over the last couple of days.

We made a new high today and a new high close for the move at 9.91.

This leaves the chart upward and the technical upward as well.

Overhead resistance would be at 10.10-10.37 level.

Questions or Comments