Closing Market Comments November 3, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower today with outside markets putting pressure on the grain markets and no fresh news regarding the Ukrainian shipping corridor.

Grain Market News

Ukraine

The market has been and will continue to react to any major events happening between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine supplies just short of half of the world sunflowers oil exports, 60% of corn exports, 10% of barley, and 9% of wheat.

Ukraine’s role in Global Food Supply

Ukraine is a major supplier in the food supply for Moldova, Lebanon, and Qatar.

They supply almost half of the wheat to Tunisia, Libya, Pakistan, and to other countries as well.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

 Mostly dry weather for Argentina’s growing region and relatively dry for the southern and western portions of Brazil’s growing region in the first week.

The second week shows fairly significant improvements in Brazilian rainfall as well as Argentina rainfall.

IF that’s the case, South American precipitation improves, that will be somewhat of a headwind for U.S. grain markets.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Rains of 1-2 inches across most of the Mississippi valley.

These rains are coming in late today through Saturday and early Sunday.

Although they will delay harvest the rains will be welcomed for dry soils in most of the belt and for river levels.

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn export sales up from last week at 372 thousand tons, but that’s still a very small number.

Overall corn exports continue to hint that USDA will be lowering its export forecast in next weeks crop report.

If lower yields don’t offset the lower exports it is possible that corn ending stocks could increase in next weeks report.

Soybean: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sales down from last week at 830 thousand tons, that may be above the level needed but this is the tie of year we need to be seeing big exports.

USDA is likely to leave its export forecast unchanged in next weeks crop report.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat sales down from last week but 348 thousand tons is still above the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

USDA’s estimates for wheat exports are only 775 million bushels, that tied for the lowest number in 15-20 years.

Bio diesel and Renewable

Biodiesel has been steady or declining a little bit over the last few years while renewable diesel production has been exploding to the upside.  

Looking at renewable diesel and the capacity compared to biodiesel, for the first time renewable and biodiesel have equal production capacities.

The increase in biodiesel is creating strong demand for soybean oil which is keeping crush margins strong.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices down, we are back into the consolidation area we seen last week.

From a chart perspective, today’s trade and close was disappointing.

It does hint at a chart pattern that is turning lower.

Chart watchers are likely looking at 6.74 as the next level of support.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had been in an uptrend, they are still in an uptrend but today was disappointing.

Todays lower close does hint at a market that may be turning lower in the short term and enough to turn the technical down.

This places the moving average down in the 14.10-14.20 range as the next level of chart support

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices closed lower today; the market has turned form a chart perspective.

Technical indicators have turned down as well.

We are sitting right on chart support from an uptrend line drawn from August lows.

This leaves 9.15 at our next level of chart support and closed today at 9.41.

Questions or Comments