Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished  higher today as China is discussing easing on a zero Covid policy and that helps most of the global financial markets and into the grain markets.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Our 2-week precipitation shows relatively dry weather in southern and western Brazil’s growing region and relatively dry in Argentina in the first week.

By mid to late next week rains should improve in much of Brazil’s growing region and lightly in Argentina.

The South American forecast is not ideal but overall, they should be able to avoid any major problems with this forecast.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

1-2 inches of rain in the lower Mississippi valley, ½-3/4 in the central Mississippi valley, and 2-3 maybe even heavier in the northern portions of the Mississippi valley.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Yield

Next week USDA will issue the November crop report.

Corn has a very consistent uptrend in yields.

Going into this year the trend line for corn was 181, USDA in the October crop report was estimating yield at 171.9. That 9.1 bushels per acre below the trend line.

USDA Corn Yield Estimate

Back in March meeting, USDA was using a trend line yield of 181 and then they dropped it sharply in May on late planting and then further currently at a 171.9.

This would be 5.1 bushels per acre below last years yield that came in at 177.

Yield that is 9.1 bushels per acre below trend is a significant reduction.

U.S. Corn S&D

Ending stocks at 1.172 would be the smallest stocks going back to 2012.

USDA is expected to lower its export number which could raise stocks.

U.S. Soybean Yield

Soybeans were estimated at 49.8 bushels per acre, that is well below the trend line yield.

This chart shows yields over the past 46 years, and you can see it has a fairly consistent uptrend in place for a period of time.

USDA Soybean Yield Estimate

Trend line yield is 51.5, USDA used that yield through the July report and raised yield in August and since then it has declined.

U.S. Soybean S&D

Ending stocks are currently projected at 200 million bushels which is the lowest going back to 2012-2015.

We are not looking for any major changes.

U.S. Wheat S&D

USDA’s stocks of 576 are not likely to change significantly.

The supply side won’t change, and we are not anticipating much in the demand changes either.

We believe exports will be left unchanged at 775.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices rallied Monday on the Russian news and then fell back Wednesday as Russia entered back into the agreement.

Bottom line corn prices are back into the narrow trade range.

The chart does look somewhat disappointing with technical indicators pointed downwards.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans have rallied and are now testing downtrend line support.

That downtrend connects the highs posted in June with another high posted in September.

At this time soybeans are sitting right at that level of overhead resistance with technical indicators over bought.

This is not a place to be buying soybeans.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices on the chart are very similar to corn because they have returned to the narrow trading range prior to the spike on Monday.

Prices re sitting right at or very near chart support so we do not want to be making any sales on wheat.

Technical indicators stuck almost dead center in a neutral range.

Questions or Comments