Today’s Prices
Corn and soybeans finished lower as the trade is concerned that ending stocks could increase on Wednesdays USDA crop report while wheat bounced back.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks
This year corn stocks were reduced in August, September, and October.
The market hit its low in July and as stocks declined prices have been increasing from 5.60 to $7.
U.S. Soybean Monthly Ending Stocks
There was one small up kick in August otherwise the general trend has been toward lower stocks.
In fact, stocks went from above 300 in summer to 200 in the October report.
Currently our stocks are well below the precious 2 years which is why prices are well above where they were.
U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks
Wheat stocks dropped in August, held steady in September, and then dropped again in October.
Wheat stocks are now the lowest over the past 9 years.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections were awful today, a marketing year low at just 9 million bushels.
In fact, it’s the second worst week in 6 years.
This contributes to our idea that corn exports could be lowered easily by 50-100 million bushels on the report this Wednesday.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybeans remain good, this is the time of the year where we need big exports.
Following the South American harvest in January timeframe, U.S. exports are typically very low.
We had 95 million bushels which is a good number.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat export inspections were a little above from last week, but we are still running about the lowest we’ve seen over the last 6 years.
Today’s inspections of just 6.6 million bushels are less than half the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Barge traffic on the Mississippi River has been hindered due to low water levels.
Over the last 7 days we got 2 inches plus in some northern portion of the Mississippi valley, half to maybe an inch in the central valley, and around an inch in the southern Mississippi Valley.
14-Day Observed Precipitation
This is the second week in a row that we have gotten decent precipitation.
Looking at a 14-day we can see much of the Mississippi river valley has had 2-4 inches of rain over the past 2 weeks.
Also good news for some areas of hard red winter wheat where we’ve seen some good rain in the southern plains but as we move into the western and north plains there is virtually no rain.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
A rain and snow event scheduled for the Dakotas and Minnesota where we could get 1-2 inches of precipitation across a wide area that could certainly use the precipitation.
South America Precipitation Forecast
Brazil is starting to show better precipitation for much of its growing area.
The second tier of green is 1 inch, yellow is 2 inches.
Much of Brazil should be getting 1-2 inches of rain over the next week with even better rains in the 2nd week.
For Argentina, some rain is forecast for the first week most of this in the weekend and early next week. Then another dry spell later next week.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices looked somewhat disappointing on the chart.
The markets have been drifting lower, in fact today prices broke through chart support and our moving averages and took out the lows from last week at 6.76.
No sign of bottoming action but we need some friendly news from the crop report this Wednesday.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices rallied up and made new highs early this morning at 14.69.
As you can see from the chart, we came right up to overhead resistance with technical indicators over bought.
We turned around and closed lower today with technical indicators hooking to the downside.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices posted some highs about 3 weeks ago at 10.37 then posted new lows last week at 9.15.
This is our low point and our high point over the last couple of months.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see wheat remaining in that range.
Initial overhead resistance is at 9.91.
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