Today’s Prices
Today was crop report today and USDA did not provide any big surprises and therefore the grain market finished mixed.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production
The corn yield came in at 172.3 up 4/10 of a bushel from last month and a little above the trade expectation.
Soybeans had a yield of 50.2 up 4/10 of a bushel from last month and slightly above the trade expectations.
Corn production at 13.93 billion bushels, above the trade expectation.
Soybean crop at 4.346 billion bushels, also above the trade expectation.
USDA Corn Yield Estimates
This year we began with a trend lien yield of 181, that yield was reduced due to late planting to 177, and the current yield is 172.3 up slightly from last month.
USDA Soybean Yield Estimates
Soybean yield came in with a trend line yield of 51.5.
USDA raised the yield to 51.9 in the August crop report, but since then they have reduced the yield with today coming in at 50.2.
U.S. and World Ending Stocks
USDA projected corn stocks at 1.182, that was 30 million bushels below what the trade was expecting allowing corn to trade higher.
Soybean ending stocks at 220, slightly above trade estimate but still very tight.
Wheat stocks at 571, coming in slightly below the average trade guess.
No major surprises in the world ending stocks.
Corn S&D
Acres were left unchanged, yield was raised by 4/10, and so production was raised as well.
Ending stocks increased just 10 million bushels from 1.172 to 1.182.
Soybeans S&D
USDA did not change acres, raised yield by 4/10 bushels, which in turn raised production by 33 million bushels.
Ending stock still tight at 220, but they did increase by 20 million bushels from last month.
Wheat S&D
Wheat supply numbers were left unchanged as expected.
USDA did increase food use by 7 million, reduced feed by 2, and the bottom line is ending stocks dropped by 5 million bushels.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
The 2-week forecast shows good rain for Brazil in week 1 and even better rains in week 2.
If this forecast is correct Brazil will be in good shape.
Argentina has much better rains in their forecast over the next week and then they get another dry spell.
3-Day Snowfall Forecast
Blizzard conditions are expected in portions of North Dakota and into northwestern Minnesota.
Most of the crops have been harvested here so we are not overly concerned.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices made a new low today down to 6.68.
Now we are into that range that we’ve been talking about for quite some time that if we didn’t get bullish news, we would push down into the 6.50-6.60 range.
We do not want to be seller down in this area.
Technical indicators are oversold so we will wait to see if we can get a bounce.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did trade lower today down to 14.33, but they bounced back closing a little higher.
The overall uptrend is still in place, but we have significant overhead resistance at the mid-$14.60s.
Technical indicators are overbought; therefore, we do need to get some friendly news to prevent a bigger correction.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have come right back to chart support.
If chart support doesn’t hold $9.15 would be the next target.
If chart support does hold where we closed today, overhead resistance would be at $9.91.
Questions or Comments
