Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished sharply lower today as USDA did not provide bullish news yesterday and South American weather looks good.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Anything in the second tier of green up to the brightest green is 1-2 inches and then blue is 2-3 with brighter blues over 3-4 inches.

Most of Brazil’s growing area is going to get 1-2 inches of rain with the blue areas getting possibly 4 inches.

In Argentina 1-2 inches of rain is also expected with some 2-3 inches of rain in the north and south.

Most of Brazil’s growing region will have normal to above normal precipitation and in Argentina most areas will see above normal precipitation.

Grain Market News

Mississippi River at St. Louis

Less than a week ago it was -1 feet, as of this morning it was at 2.7 and could go up to 2.9.

That would be up 4 feet and certainly beneficial for barge traffic.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 30 days we’ve had 2 inches or more of rain over a large portion of the area that feeds the Mississippi River.  

Even the northern portions of the Mississippi River have gotten 1-2 inches of rain.

Unfortunately, in the central and western plains there has been virtually no rain.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

As of yesterday’s report, USDA is projecting 1.182 which would be the lowest going back to 2013.

Keep in mind, experts believe corn exports could be 100-200 million bushels lower.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks

Our stocks at 220 are the tightest going back to the 2015-2016 timeframe.

But stocks increased by 20 million bushels and if we see further increases the trade will not be excited about being long in an environment where they increase.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

Wheat stocks fell by 5 million bushels yesterday and the lowest going back to 2008.

U.S. exports are slow but with domestic stocks tight we do not need to see a lot of exports.

U.S. Grain Stocks

Overall U.S. stocks are still tight.

Our total stocks of the 3 primary grains are well below the previous 2 years that were tight and no where near the high levels.

U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks

You can see we are up 10 million bushels from 1.172 to 1.182.

U.S. Soybean Monthly Ending Stocks

Soybean stocks increased by 20 million bushels; in fact, our stocks went above the level that was projected at this time 2 years ago.

U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks

Wheat stocks at 571, still very tight.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices have been setting new lows daily this week with today’s low down to 6.52.

Prices are approaching our long-term channel with the blue line set at 6.47, that’s 6 cents from todays low.

Technical indicators are very oversold, the most oversold since early July.

Our moving averages come into play at 6.75.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had a reversal day on Monday, followed through on Tuesday, bounced yesterday, and today sharply down.

Initial chart support is at 14.15 with further chart support around $14.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices made a new low for this move and now approaching the lows from 2 weeks ago.

Today we got down to 9.17, almost matching the low from two week ago at 9.15.

We believe prices are coming down to where we are likely to find support, so we do not want to sell.

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