Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished higher today with news that China may relax its covid restrictions along with strong outside markets.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
U.S. Dollar Index
We can see that it peaked in September at 114.74, today we are down to 106.22.
That’s an 8.5% reduction in just 6 weeks.
Compared to a year ago the U.S. dollar is still quite high.
DOW Jones
Since mid-October the stock market has rallied over 5000 points and we are breaking out of a long term downtrend from back at the first of year.
The stock market does not have a direct influence on the grain market, but certainly is supportive compared to a falling market.
Crude Oil
Crude oil hit a bottom at least this Fall at 76.5, that was in late September.
We are now at 88, up $12 per barrel.
That’s not a big move but at least the chart looks like it has turned and is pointed upward for energy.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast Week 1
At this time South American weather forecast looks good.
This first set of maps is for week 1, Brazil’s growing region has good rains through most of the region between now and November 17th.
You can see versus normal that rainfall is at or above normal in most locations.
Argentina is also expecting some better rain, mostly coming through this weekend.
South American Precipitation Forecast Week 2
Week 2, Brazil looks to be in a mostly favorable rainfall forecast still.
In Argentina, their rains look a little lighter in the second week which would be below normal.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Anything above the 0-line is above average and anything below the zero line are below average.
If you are a half degree or more above average that is El Nino, a half degree or more below average is La Nina.
With temperatures in the equatorial pacific being below average for the last two years it did cause major problems for the Safrinha corn crop late in the crop year 2 years ago and then last year as well.
U.S. Drought Monitor
A large share of the U.S. has some level of drought conditions in place.
In fact, we are hearing reports that this is the most drought they’ve seen across the U.S. since they began keeping record.
It clear to see that the plains into the western and northwestern belt have seen some of the worst drought conditions.
Snow Depth
The snow and blizzards that hit, the areas in darker blue are 10 inches plus in portions of central North Dakota.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices had an inside day, not taking out yesterdays high or low allowing the technical to start leveling off at an extremely oversold level.
Technical indicators near zero, we do not want to be making sales in corn.
November Soybean Chart
Soybeans prices were down sharply yesterday and regaining almost all of that being up sharply today.
Soybeans are now stuck in a range between 14.20-14.69.
South American weather will likely be the factor that determines if soybeans will test or break out of downtrend or if we will work lower and test chart support.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices came down and tested the low set about 2 weeks ago.
Yesterdays low at 9.17 coming within a couple cents of that low.
We have a downtrend in place off the highs posted in October at 10.37 but also have chart support at 9.15.
That leaves any price within these boundaries at fair game heading into next week.
Questions or Comments
