Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished lower today, yesterday they were higher from the rumor of a Russian missel and today reports say it was a Ukrainian air defense missel that landed in Poland allowing the risk to be reduced.
Grain Market News
Corn Production
2 years ago, Brazil had a severe drought in the safrinha crop knocking production down to 139, last year production rebounded to 167, and this year USDA is projecting South American production at 181.
If they do produce this record number that will chew into U.S. exports next year.
The report today included 1.866mmt of corn to Mexico, which is a great sale.
Soybean Production
Last year South America had 170.9mmt, down sharpy due to severe drought early on.
USDA is projecting soybean production could be 201.5mmt when you combine Brazil and Argentina.
South American Precipitation Forecast
Brazil produces about 2.5 times more corn than Argentina and produces 3 times more soybeans than Argentina.
Brazil looks to have good rain in week 1 from 1-2 inches and some 3-4 inches.
A little bit less is expected in far southern Brazil.
Week 2 shows very good rains for northern and eastern portions while southern and western areas could miss out.
In Argentina only light rain is expected this week with very little expected next week.
Temperature Anomaly
Some areas a little above normal and some areas a little below.
Argentina, which is overall dryer than desired, is also expecting above normal temperatures.
So, there are a few concerns but any significant rally based on Argentina crop losses would likely become a selling opportunity with Brazil’s weather looking good.
Grain Market News
Weekly Ethanol Production
Production was down sharply from last week from 1.051 to 1.022 billion barrels per day.
The good news is that is still very close to the level needed to reach USDA’s current estimate.
Weekly Stocks
Stocks are down sharply from last week to 21.298 million barrels.
That’s still above last year but the lowest level of fuel ethanol stocks so far this marketing year.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices, after setting a new low yesterday at 6.51 and rallying up to 6.75, had an inside day today.
Because of yesterday’s big rally the chart does look good with technical indicators looking good as well.
6.75 is currently overhead resistance.
November Soybean Chart
Soybeans also had a sharp rally yesterday up to 14.64 challenging the high from last week at 14.69.
Today was sharply lower and now we have challenged the highs and the lows in 1 day.
Todays close was disappointing with the technical indicators pointing down as well.
The lower $14 cannot be ruled out if we don’t get a quick rebound.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices shot up yesterday to 9.74 ad then gave back those gains today leaving us stuck in the sideways range between 9.15-9.91.
Todays close at 9.55 is very close to the middle of the range.
Technical indicators are stuck in the center of this neutral range as well.
Questions or Comments
