Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today following a mixed week and with the Thanksgiving holiday generating a short week next week.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
Brazil looks good for the bulk of its growing area.
The only exception would be less rain than desired in the extreme far southern portion.
The second week again may be dry in the extreme south but mostly in good shape for the rest.
Argentina looks dryer than desired for the next 2 weeks which could cause a bounce.
Temperature Anomaly
Temperatures next week in Brazil’s growing region look good with some a little below and some a little above.
Argentina as they dry out could also see above normal temperatures.
They are still in the planting season, so temperature is not a major factor here.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Chart
In 2012 and 2013 we had high prices due to drought conditions in the U.S.
In 2021-2022 in the U.S., we’ve had high prices because we had weather problems that resulted in below trend line yields.
In addition to that we had major drought in South America for 2 years in a row.
If South America produces record corn and beans crops, that will mean the overall trend in our prices could continue to be lower.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks
A year ago U.S. corn was the cheapest corn in the world and U.S. soybeans were the cheapest in the world.
This promoted very strong demand.
This year prices are significantly higher than a year ago, U.S. corn is currently the highest price in the world.
Our stock as of now are relatively tight.
Soybean Weekly Chart
Soybeans also had in 2012-2013 tight stocks following the drought with high prices.
The past 2 years there was drought in South America affecting soybeans as well.
South America is on track for a record crop which could push bean prices lower as well.
If they do produce record crop, it will be difficult to prevent our markets from slipping lower.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks
Tight stock following that drought allowed high prices in 2013-2014, large stocks resulted in cheap prices in 2017-2019, and stocks have started to get tighter the last couple years.
Currently USDA is projecting tight stocks for the U.S.
Wheat Weekly Chart
Prices exploded above $13 per bushel following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ideas that both could be limited on exports.
The market quickly learned that Russia was still going to find a way to get its products into the market.
Then the export corridor allowed Ukrainian product to work its way into the market as well.
Wee did rally back in October up to $10, but it will be hard to sustain a rally if Russia and Ukraine continue to ship grain.
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks
USDA is currently projecting our stock this year at 571, which would be the lowest over the last 12-13 years.
This is one reason why we are not overly bearish in the wheat market.
If South America has good crop, that could be somewhat of a weight to tug on wheat.
The bottom line is currently USDA is projecting tight stocks for all grain.
December Corn Chart
Corn price actually from a short term chart perspective look good as we are challenging highs from Tuesday’s rally and trying to break out to the upside.
The chart looks good for corn for the moment.
The technical indicators look good as well.
Therefore, we will wait until next week to see if we get some follow through.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices look negative with new lows posted yesterday and little bounce back today.
The chart and the technical are pointed downward.
Unless we get some friendly news next week that could indicate that this market is preparing to test chart support in the $14 range.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been stuck in a narrowing range with a downtrend in place off the October highs at 10.37 and a double bottom in the 9.15-9.17 range.
We’ve ben stuck in this narrowing pattern for about a month now.
Technical indicators stuck in a neutral range while the wheat market waits for fresh news.
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