Closing Market Comments November 22, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower today, there is concerns about a potential rail strike in the U.S. and South American weather looks good for the moment.

Grain Market News

China

This chart shows Chinese covid cases over the last year.

We had some minor outbreaks in August and September but we had a major outbreak of Chinese covid cases over the last week or so.

Its very similar to the outbreak we saw back in late March-April last Spring.

It’s this big increase in new cases that’s creating new lockdown restrictions in portions of China.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Argentina does look dry for the next week with some moisture in the second week of the forecast.

Brazil has some dryness in southern and western Brazil this week while central and northern regions remain in good shape.

The second week forecast shows improving moisture over almost the entire nation.

Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures do not look to be an issue in Brazil.

They have mixed temperatures with some a little above and some a little below.

Argentina the dryness will contribute towards temperatures being above normal.

It’s not the heart of their growing season so it’s not a major risk.

Soil Moisture Change

We can see that dryer trend in week 1, this map shows soil moisture change that is expected today through November 20th.

Argentina is looking at drying soils as well as Paraguay, Uruguay, and portions of southwestern Brazil.

South America 2-Week Rainfall

Looking at the percent expected over the next 2 weeks you can see Argentina looking at below normal across the entire growing regions.

Extending into extreme western and southern portions of Brazil.

Most of Brazil will have normal to above normal rain over the next 2 weeks.

Corn Acreage- Brazil

Brazil has a new record at 55 million acres.

Estimated production of nearly 5 billion bushels, up over 400 million from last year and up about 1.4 million from 2 years ago.

Corn production in Brazil is expected to be an all-time record.

Soybean Acreage- Brazil

Soybean acres in Brazil are also a record amount with production estimated at 5.5 billion bushels.

This is up a billion bushels from last year, therefore it’s easy to see that unless Brazilian weather becomes extremely threatening its likely they will have record crops for corn and beans.

U.S. Corn Harvest

Harvest is wrapping up here in the U.S., we are 96% harvested and this week’s weather looks good.

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Winter wheat held steady at 32% good to excellent and that is the lowest Fall rating for mid-November on record going back 36 years.

But its also worth noting that next week will be the last week of ratings until March-April.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices remain stuck in sideways range that range has been in place for about 3 months.

We are now near the lower end of that range and it will be important that chart support hold in the 6.47-6.51 area.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans prices stuck in a sideways range, that range in place for nearly 4 months and it is also narrowing.

Anything within this formation is fair game in the next few days.

The chart does look good with some new highs being posted this morning, although the close was lower and disappointing.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices stuck in a sideways range, that range has become more and more narrow.

Wheat prices are now approaching chart support in the 9.15-9.17 area.

We closed at 9.25 today.

Questions or Comments