Grain markets started out lower but rebounded to close higher today on some short covering ahead of the holiday.
Grain Market News
South America Precipitation Nov 23-29
Brazil is expecting good rains in the northeastern areas while remaining dry in southern and western areas. Argentina is mostly dry over the first week of the forecast.
The anomaly on the left, in Brazil north and eastern Brazil looks okay while southern and western Brazil are dry and Argentina remains dry as well.
South America Precipitation Nov 30-Dec 6
The second week we see some improvement in Brazil’s rainfall and a slight improvement in Argentina’s rainfall.
When we look at the anomaly you can see that Brazil is mostly average precipitation and Argentina average to slightly below.
Vegetation health in Brazil conditions in central and southern good, northern Brazil a little less than last year.
Argentina’s mostly seeing vegetation health below the year ago level.
The right side is the NDVI, that’s the normalized difference index compared to average.
Overall Brazil looks good compared to average while Argentina is well below average.
Argentina Corn Planting Progress
As of November 17th, Argentina corn is 32% planted versus 48% on average.
You can see we have been well below average throughout the planting season and that’s due to dryness.
The planting season lasts over 4 months from September to early February.
Argentina Soybean Planting Progress
Argentina soybean progress is well below normal at 18% planted compared to 32% on average.
You can see that since the beginning of planting, Argentina has been well below the normal pace.
Brazil 1st Corn Planting Progress
Through November 11th, planting was ahead of average and equal to last year.
Planting started early and has remained above the average pace throughout the season.
This week it is estimated that Brazil’s 1st corn crop is over 90% planted.
Brazil Soybean Planting Progress
Soybeans through November 4th, we are close to average just being a little below the year ago.
We expect something in the low 80s on November 18th.
Grain Market News
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production improved to 1.041 million barrels per day.
That above the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast but its still below the year ago level.
Year to date is down 3.1% from last year, USDA is estimating that corn use will be down 1% this year.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Fuel ethanol stocks exploded to the upside being up 7% from last week to 22.831 millionaires.
That’s not only 13% above the year ago, but its near record large for this time of year.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices are stuck in a very narrow range for over 2 weeks now.
We have overhead resistance from a downtrend line and chart support around the 6.50 level.
Today’s firmer close is good news but we need to break through the downtrend line to see some buying.
November Soybean Chart
Soybeans prices had a firm close after being lower this morning.
In the very short term, the market looks good inching its way higher.
Overall, we are stuck in a sideways range with technical indicators stuck as well.
If they can push up toward the previous highs towards the 14.64-14.69 level, that may be an area to make sales.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices this morning were very negative down sharply and making the new low for the move at 9.11.
But we turned around and close at 9.30, 19 cents off the daily low.
An overall downtrend is still in place off the highs posted in October at 10.37 and new lows posted today.
Next week we will see if we can get some bullish news and push this market towards 9.55, initial overhead resistance from our downtrend line.
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