Closing Market Comments November 28, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today which has been the pattern the last 2-3 months.

Grain Market News

Crude Oil

Crude oil was able to post a new low.

The good news is it did reverse and is currently trading at 77.31, up $3.70 from the morning lows.

The rebound in the crude oil market did support a rebound in the grain markets as well.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Brazil is in mostly good shape, although far southern and far western portions of Brazil could be short changed for moisture.

Argentina is mostly dry conditions across their growing region this week.

Looking ahead to next week Brazil continues to be in mostly good shape and Argentina could see some better rains next week.

Soil Moisture Change

This shows that southern and western Brazil have some dry pockets expected to continue and Argentina could see slipping soil moisture as well.

A large are of Brazil’s producing area in the central, northern, and northeastern are in good shape.

Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures are non-threatening for Brazil with some areas a little above and some a little below.

In Argentina where conditions are dryer there are also above normal temperatures.

This has been ongoing for the past few weeks causing additional delays for planting and crop stress.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

In the U.S. we did get additional rains over the weekend in the Texas, Oklahoma, and even southeast Kansas areas.

Some of that rain moved into the Mississippi River which is good news for river levels and barges.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

The 30 day has a similar pattern where those states down south had good rain while the central, western, and portions of the northern plains remain dry.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections were very disappointing after bouncing up towards 20 million bushels the previous 2 weeks.

They are back down to 11.9 million bushels which is well below last year and well below the 49 million bushels that’s needed weekly to reach the USDA forecast.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean export inspections were pretty good at 74 million bushels.

Last week’s number was raised to 90 million bushels.

Overall soybeans continue to trend below the year ago level, our year-to-date exports are down 10% versus USDA’s estimate of 5%.

But the outstanding sales for soybeans are above last year.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat export inspections were disappointing at just 7.29 million bushels, that’s about half the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

But because we had some good shipments back in August-October our year-to-date shipments are very close to the target.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices remain stuck in a sideways range, they have been here going back to August.

Recent negative news has kept us towards the lower end of the range.

The good news is the market has not seen a new low for 2 weeks and the short term is trying to turn up.

The 10-day average trend is up as well as the technical indicators.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans prices have also been trying to work higher recently.

Today they set new highs for this move up to 14.65.

Today’s sizeable rally in beans pushed us above our downtrend line that has been in place back to last summer.

The combination of a positive chart pattern and the technical pointed upward as well tells us the market may be interested in testing the 14.75 level and then 15-15.08.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices making a new low for the move down to $8.98 and having a disappointing close.

This keeps the trend downward.

We did have a sideways pattern for a month or so but the recent breakout below the double bottom has it down now.

Technical indicators are getting close to the oversold level again.

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