Closing Market Comments November 29, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as the choppy back and forth pattern that’s been in place for months continues.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

The bulk of Brazil’s growing area is looking to be in good shape except for the far southern or southwestern areas.

The second week also looks mostly favorable with some dryness continuing in far southern Brazil.

Argentina’s forecast is dry over the first week and better rains are seen late in the second week of the forecast.  

Soil Moisture Change

Today through December 7th shows that declining soil moisture for the bulk of Argentina and extreme southern Brazil.

We are not overly concerned but it is enough to keep the market supported.

Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures are rising across all of Argentina’s growing area while Brazil looks mostly favorable.

South America Drought

This shows that much of Brazil is in good shape, the far southwest is extremely dry.

Argentina is where drought is widespread and is expected to intensify in the next couple weeks.

Grain Market News

Corn- Commodity Fund

The current fund position is long at 170 thousand contracts, that’s less than half of what it was earlier in the year.

Our current position held by the funds is smaller than any time last year.

The funds are still long at 170 thousand contracts, but that’s a manageable position much smaller than earlier this year and last year.

Soybeans- Commodity Fund

The funds are currently long at 82 thousand contracts, less than half of the long they held earlier in the year.

It’s even about half the size of the position back in June.

Wheat- Commodity Fund

Wheat funds are short at 53 thousand contracts.

This is a fairly sizeable, short position at 53 thousand, especially when U.S. and Global stocks remain quite tight.

This is Chicago wheat, its worth noting that the funds are long 18 thousand contracts from KC and short 1000 contract in Minneapolis.

C-B-W Combined Commodity Funds

We can see the current position 199 thousand contracts, that’s less than half of what it was back in the Spring and early Summer.

The fund position is much smaller than it was earlier in the year, but they are still long, and we do need to get some bullish news to encourage them to remain long.

December Corn Chart

The longer term trend in corn has been sideways the last 3-4 months, the intermediate trend is a downtrend off the highs posted in October, and the short term is trying to turn upward.

This market may test intimal resistance at 6.77, we closed at 6.69 today.   

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans have a long term trend in a sideways trend, the intermediate is a sideways trend, and the short term is an uptrend.

In fact, the market is attempting to break out above our pennant formation.

Overhead resistance is at 14.75, closing at 14.66 today.

We remain in an overall sideways range.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been pushing lower, we broke out of a double bottom at 9.15-9.13 and now the market is in a consistent downtrend.

Technical indicators are getting very oversold so no place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments