Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed again today, this is the third day in a row.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Production was down form last week to 1.018 million barrels.

That’s virtually right on the level needed to reach USDA’s current forecast.

Year to date ethanol production is down 3%, USDA is estimating it to be down 1%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks were up slightly from last week and near record large for late November.

There is certainly no shortage of fuel ethanol with stocks currently 13% above the level they were at a year ago.

Grain Market News

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

The winter wheat crop rating came in at 34% good to excellent, that was up 2% from last week.

Rains in Texas and Oklahoma and even Kansas have helped the crops a little.

We are still entering the winter dormancy season near the lowest rating on record.

60-Day Observed Precipitation

Anything in green is 2 inches of above, that means that the central, western, and northern plains have many areas that have seen less than 2 inches of rain over the last 2 months.

In fact, the lighter blue is areas with less than half an inch of rain.

Yellow and tan areas are 8-10 inches or more over the last 60 days.

60-Day Precipitation % of Normal

It shows the areas that were in light blue, not only has precipitation been below normal but less than 25% of normal.

Those are the areas seeing drought conditions expand or worsen.

As we mentioned areas with 8-10 inches or more of rain have seen drought improve.

South American Precipitation Nov 30-Dec 6

Brazil’s primary growing region has good rains in the northern and eastern portions while extreme southern and portions of western Brazil look to receive less than normal rainfall.

The right side shows the below normal rainfall in southern and western portions of Brazil and for Argentina growing areas, which is further to the south, they are not expecting much rain either.

South American Precipitation Dec 6-Dec 13

The second week shows most of northern and eastern Brazil in good shape and the dryer parts in the far west or south.

Argentina, although not completely dry, is still expecting less than normal rainfall.

Observed Surface High Temps

The heart of the growing region has higher temperatures as well in the mid and upper 90s.

The drought conditions have been in place for a while and now we are adding heat to this.

Temperature Anomaly

Brazil does not look to have any major problems, some areas a little below and some a little above.

Argentina looks to experience some significant heat over the next week and even possibly the next 2 weeks.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices long term are in a sideways range, intermediate is in a downtrend off the highs posted in October, and the short term is in an uptrend.

Today’s trade was somewhat disappointing with an outside day down.

Technical indicators have been upward but with today’s disappointing close giving us a hint of hooking.

If we get March corn in the 6.80 range, we may evaluate the possibility of making additional sales.  

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices continue to push higher making a new high for the move at 14.84.

Higher energy prices helped but the threatening weather is helping as well.

The fact that beans have broken above the 14.75 high and broke the pennant formation, we have had to reconfigure the chart today.

Technical indicators are starting to approach the overbought area.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are in a downtrend.

The long term is still sideways, but the intermediate is down, and the short term is down.

Today was an outside day up, not taking out yesterdays low but took out yesterdays high.

If we get some follow through to the upside tomorrow or Friday that could signal that wheat may test overhead resistance in the 9.25-9.30 range.

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