Grain markets finished mixed today, drought conditions in Argentina supportive but very favorable weather for Brazil was a negative.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
Brazil looks good with much of the region seeing 2-4 inches of rain over the next week.
The exception could be the far southern region.
The second week also looks for very good precipitation except for southern portions of Brazil.
In Argentina there is some rain projected in the northwestern portion of their growing region and then a dryer trend again in the second week.
Argentina Soil Moisture
If you are 98% or better, you are in the to 2% of the wettest years and if you are in 2% or below you are in the lowest 2% of all years.
You can see the extremely dry conditions across a large share of Argentina’s crop region.
Heat is also a concern in Argentina.
Argentina’s crop region seen temperatures in the 100s across almost the entire growing region yesterday and temperatures today again look to be in the 100s.
10-Day Snowfall Forecast
Here in the U.S. this map shows to have a large area of 2 foot or more snowfall in primarily North Dakota.
We could see some very good precipitation in some of the spring wheat country if this forecast is correct.
This could extend into South Dakota and southern and western Minnesota as well.
Grain Market News
U.S. Ending Stocks
This table shows that U.S. ending stocks is expecting corn stocks at 1.242 bushels, up 59 million bushels from last month.
The trade is expecting soybean stocks at 236, up from 220 bushel last month.
Wheat is expected at 578 up from 571 last month.
World Ending Stocks
The trade is expecting corn stocks at 300.9, virtually unchanged from last month.
Bean stocks at 102.2 unchanged from last month.
Wheat stocks at 267, down fractionally from a month ago.
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Corn sales were up from last week but just 692 thousand tons.
That’s well below the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.
Soybean: Weekly Export Sales
Soybean had a very good number at 1.716mmt, over 4 times the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat at 190 was well below the 310 thousand that’s needed weekly to reach the USDA export forecast.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices are in a downtrend off the highs posted back in October at 7.11.
We have seen some stabilizing over the past 3 days.
Today’s low was well above yesterdays low, so it looks like the chart is trying to turn upward.
That was enough to hook the technical up as well.
Current overhead resistance comes in at 6.53-6.60.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices have exploded to the highest level going back to the 15.08 highs back in September.
Combination of prices being near the highest level over the last 5 months, technical indicators close to the overbought range, the uncertainty of the crop report tomorrow, and the fact that soybean prices have rallied $1.25 off the early October harvest lows.
All these items contributed to the decision to make some additional sales in soybeans today.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in a downtrend, but like corn they are showing signs of trying to form some bottoming action.
This have been enough to turn the technical indicators as well.
Overhead resistance around the $9 level.
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