Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, sliding back a little bit after a strong morning trade.

Grain Market News

 U.S. Dollar Index

We are down over 11% from the highs posted in late September.

We are still relatively high at 103.53, significantly higher than we were a year ago when we were trading around 95-96.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

Our stock at this point are projected to be very tight.

This number could rise if USDA continues to lower its corn exports.

Our corn market has seen some significant pull backs from our highs back at harvest.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks

Soybean ending stocks at 220 million bushels also very tight.

That doesn’t mean the market can’t go down, especially if the market thinks stocks will be increasing down the road.

The fact that we have very tight soybean stocks is also going to provide support on chart breaks.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

Wheat stocks have been declining for the past 6 years and are very tight.

We’ve had a sharp break in wheat but are likely to find significant support now given that stocks are at very tight levels.

U.S. Grain Stocks

This year’s total is well below the previous two year which were relatively tight.

Grain Market News

Mississippi River

As of last week, we were down near zero on the river level at Memphis and currently at 5 feet now.

With the rain that’s expected the river at St. Louis is expected to get around 9.7 feet around Christmas.

That would be almost 10 feet above where it was at last week.

U.S. Radar

There is a major low-pressure system which is wrapping moisture up and around that system and this is going to give a good shot of rain to almost the entire Mississippi Valley including the Ohio River Valley over the next 2-3 days.

South America Perception Forecast

Week 1 of their forecast shows dry weather in Argentina and then also dry in the adjacent areas of Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

The second week shows a little bit better rain in southwest Argentina but still a dryer pattern for southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

Temperature Anomaly

The entire growing region of Argentina is experiencing above normal temperatures.

Temperatures have not been as extreme in Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil.

The heart of the South American drought remains in Argentina.

December Corn Chart

The corn chart looks good trending higher off the lows from last week.

Corn has now rallied 25 cents and come right up to overhead resistance where we stalled out today.

That doesn’t mean we won’t break through but for the moment that overhead resistance provided a lid on prices today.

Technical indicators look good as well.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down sharply yesterday and up sharply today.

We remain near the upper end of the recent range.

Technical indictors have been hooking back and forth with no clear direction.

We are not overly bullish on soybeans, but we start to question whether beans will be able to break out above the low $15 level.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look a lot like corn, they have turned the corner and are pointed higher.

Technical indicators are pointed higher as well.

This indicates this market may be interested in testing the $9-9.13 level.

Questions or Comments