Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower across the board today as Argentina’s weather looks to get a little bit wetter.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Our 2 week forecast for Brazil shows dryness in the southern and southwestern areas in week 1 with some better rains in southern and southwestern Brazil in week 2.

South of Brazil down in Argentina there is some scattered rains in week 1 and some better rain possible in the northwestern areas of week 2.

Brazil Soybean and Corn Production

Mato Grosso is Brazil’s largest soybean state producing 25% of the nation’s beans.

Over a quarter of the soybean’s are produced in the far south.

Rio Grande do Sul is the furthest south and that’s where we are seeing some dryness and heat concerns.

Brazil’s second corn crop, the safrinha crop, is planted mostly in the north which accounts for 3/4 of Brazilian corn production.

Brazil’s first corn crop includes over 40% grown in the far south, this is the area that would create some concern if drought conditions don’t start to ease.

Argentina Soybean and Corn Production

We typically highlight the heart of their growing regions where about 80% of their crops are grown.

Argentina’s corn and soybean crop region is very similar with about 80% of the corn grown in that same region of Argentina.

Grain Market News

Friday’s Low Temperatures

You can se below zero down to the Texas panhandle and through central Oklahoma.

Double digits below zero from northeast Colorado. through northern Kansas, and all of Nebraska.

Snow Depth

Unfortunately, there is no snow covering the western and southern portions of the hard red winter wheat belt.

So the current poor conditions, dry soils, and lack of snow cover does make the cold temperatures a potential threat.

Wheat Resistance

From about mid-December to mid-January is the heart of the dormancy season for hard red winter wheat.

Wheat is resistant to about 5-10 below zero during the heart of dormancy.

But we could see temperatures potentially at this threshold or colder.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections came in at 29.2 million bushels, the second best of the marketing year but still below the 48 million bushels needed weekly.

There is a very strong seasonal trend for corn exports to improve and be relatively strong in the February-April timeframe.

USDA is projecting down 16% and currently year to date we are down 30.4%.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections are declining seasonally down to 59.5 million bushels.

That’s still nearly double the level needed weekly to reach the USDA forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat came in at 11.1 million bushels, that is below the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

But wheat like corn sees a seasonal improvement as we move through the winter into the Spring time.

Our year to date is down 1.8, that is a little bit better than the USDA target of 3.1%.

March Corn Chart

Corn continues to see mixed signals, today was not a good day on the charts pushing to a new low over the past week.

We are still well above the lows established in early December.

Bottom line is the charts are giving us mixed signal, but we are in a downtrend.

Technical indicators have turned down following today’s poor performance.

Today wheat closed at 6.47, chart support at 6.35 with overhead resistance at 6.60.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also giving mixed signals.

The fact that our high at 14.97 was posted about 2 weeks ago and we have not been able to take out that high in the past couple of weeks is giving hints that the trend may be turning down.

The longer-term trend is still pointed upward.

Current support is at 14.50 with overhead resistance at 14.97.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have also turned lower of last week’s high.

We have significant chart support in the 8.11-8.20 range.

Todays close at 8.43 leaving chart support 22 cents below todays close and overhead resistance at 8.79.

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