Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher across the board with some help from the outside market and a dryer forecast for Argentina.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Rain has been reduced in Argentina in week 1 and week 2.

That’s seen as supportive especially the heart of Argentina looks to be mostly dry.

We don’t want to get overly bullish because of this weather but keep in mind most of Brazil is going to be in very good shape.

Their crop conditions and yield potential look very good in central and northern Brazil.  

South America 30-Day Precip vs. Normal

Ongoing dryness is a concern form a forecast perspective, but it also comes on top of a lack of moisture over the past 30 days.

Much of eastern, central, and northern Brazil has been in much better shape with precipitation anywhere from a little below to a little above.

The primary concern is for extreme southern Brazil into Argentina.

Grain Market News

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

The area circled form Nebraska, eastern Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas accounts for nearly half of the U.S. winter wheat cop.

Also note the location primarily in the western and southwestern plains.

U.S. Current Condition

Brutally cold air is building up along the U.S. and Canadian border.

Temperatures at noon today were 20-30 below zero.

This cold air will be making its way to the south and southeast over the next few days.

Snow ahead of that is primarily in the northern plains and far northwestern belt and much of the hard red winter wheat belt is going to lack snow coverage.

Thursdays Low Temperatures

This map shows tomorrow morning lows and shows that cold air moving to the south and southeast.

Temperatures below zero all the way down to the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and down to the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

Snow Depth

That area in the heart of the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt lacks snow coverage and virtually no snow in the forecast ahead of this coolness.

It’s this combination of cold, wind, and a lack of snow coverage that allowed hard red winter wheat prices to rally sharply today.

3-Day Snowfall Forecast

With the exception of far eastern Nebraska and far eastern Kansas, most of the hard red winter wheat belt will miss out on the snowfall which could provide protective coverage.

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production dropped sharply from last week to 1.029 million barrels per day.

The good news is that’s slightly above the level needed to reach the current USDA forecast.

Year to date production is down 2.8% from last year, USDA is projecting corn use for ethanol will be down 1%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks of fuel ethanol declined from last week to 24.067 million barrels.

We are still at record level for stocks at this time of year.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices broke out to the upside, we did have a downtrend in place that was fairly defined.

We have had to reconfigure our chart formation.

Today’s close at 6.62 is above last week’s high so therefore the chart looks good in the short term and enough to turn the technical up as well.

Overhead resistance is at 6.74.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices higher today but we have not made a new high.

The highs posted two weeks ago at 14.97 would be overhead resistance.

We aren’t overly bullish, but the chart does look good in the short term, hooking the technical.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat price shad a nice move to the upside today.

This keeps the gradual uptrend intact with overhead resistance at 8.79.

We continue to believe we may have seen a significant low at 8.21 in early December.

If Russia decides to escalate their war against Ukraine that could allow wheat prices to work higher.

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