Closing Market Comments December 22, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly lower today as a little bit more rain for Argentina combined with lower outside markets pushed prices lower on the day.

Grain Market News

U.S. Temperatures

Temperature at 7am this morning, this may not be the absolute lows.

But we can see double digits below zero, that’s not wind chill that’s the temperatures.

10-15 below zero from northeast Colorado, all of Nebraska, and al points north.

We were below zero from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle through much of Oklahoma.

U.S. Snow Cover

This shows snow cover as of this morning, there is no snow cover in the southern plains and very little cover from extreme northern Kansas through much of Nebraska.

Combining these cold temperatures with dry soils, we could see some winter kill.

South American Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows mostly dry weather for Argentina’s crop region.

The best rains could fall in far northwestern regions of their growing area.

In the second week there is not a lot of rain with the exception of the northwest areas.

Some of that dryness does edge into Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil.

But the majority, 85% of Brazil’s growing region, looks to be in good shape.

Therefore, today’s forecast was considered a light negative.

Temperature Anomaly

We had some extreme heat last week in Argentina, the next week is looking just slightly above normal while Brazil for the most part is going to be at or below normal.

The bottom line is the majority of Brazil is in good shape and Argentina needs more rain.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn exports down this week to 637 thousand tons.

That’s below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

We do expect a couple more weeks of low sales.

We typically do see some low numbers in the Christmas and New Years weeks.

We still may fall short of USDA’s target, but we should see a much better window through the winter months.

Soybean: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sales down dramatically from last week to 736 thousand tons.

That is still over double the level needed to reach UDSA export forecast.

Last year areas of Brazil and Argentina had severe drought which opened up a window for good export sales.

This year Brazil is expected to have a record crop and our export sales are likely going to be much lower in the wintertime this year.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales were down from last week to 334 thousand tons.

That’s still above the level needed to reach the export forecast.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices made a new high last night up to 6.64 but did turn around and closed slightly lower.

The overall trend looks good.

Corn has broken through the 10- and 20-day moving average and now it is finding some resistance at the 40-day average.

Overhead resistance is 6.74, about 10-15 cents above where we closed today.

Chart support is coming in around 6.55.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are in an uptrend off the lows posted at 13.71.

Over the last 3 weeks or so this market has gotten extremely choppy.

Soybeans have chart support around 14.60 with overhead resistance at 14.97.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look good on a chart, we do have an uptrend developing and have been able to close above the 10- and 20-day moving averages.

Overhead resistance at 8.79.

Currently the chart and technical look good.  

We could see some additional upside potential over the next few days.

Questions or Comments