Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished higher today, South American weather is still a concern and that created some chart and technical buying.
Grain Market News
South American: 7-Day Observed Precipitation
In Argentina portions of the far north and west got some decent rain.
We can see the red dot in northern Argentina where 3-5 inches of rain fell over the weekend.
Unfortunately, it was relatively isolated and about half the country got very little rain or no rain.
Looking at an anomaly or compared to normal, where they got the big rain in northern Argentina was well above normal but much of Argentina rainfall remains below normal.
South America: 30 Day Precip vs. Normal
The 30 day shows much of Brazil being at or close to normal but the far western areas have had a little less.
Portions of northern and northwestern Brazil get 8-12 inches of rainfall during the month of December on average.
Therefore, if they are a little below normal there is still plenty to keep crops in good shape.
Far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina have had portions quite dry.
South American Precipitation Forecast
The 2-week forecast shows some scattered rain in Argentina with most of it over the weekend.
Most of Brazil should remain in very good shape except for extreme southern Portions.
Week 2 is showing a dry stretch for Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Additional rain in the U.S. from 1-2 inches and isolated 4-5 inches is expected over the next 7 days.
This should extend into the Ohio Valley and eastern belt as well.
In the west and northwest there is not a lot of moisture.
6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
Above normal precipitation over the entire central U.S. and all the U.S. growing regions.
It does appear that the drought area in the U.S. will continue to shrink as we move through early January.
Sea Surface Temperatures
We are also watching sea surface temperatures.
Anything a half degree or above normal would be considered El Nino or warmer than normal and anything below a half degree would be considered La Nina or cooler than normal .
We have remained in La Nina conditions for 2 years now.
The forecast continues to call for normal conditions by about the month of April.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections were a marketing year high at 33.7 million bushels.
Still short of the 49 million bushels that’s needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Nonetheless we are seeing gradual improvement and expect that will continue.
Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean inspections down to 64.4 million bushels but that’s still over double the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Our soybean inspections are declining seasonally as we would expect but still on track.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat inspections were disappointing at 10 million bushels, and we need 15 million bushels to reach the target.
We also have a good seasonal in wheat where our export inspections improve January-March.
Brazilian Monthly Corn Exports
Following Brazil’s record Safrinha crop last summer their exports have been much larger than they were a year ago.
In fact, if we take July-December timeframe, Brazilian corn exports look like they will lend up being 20-21mmt above the year ago level.
December Corn Chart
Corn had a very good day on the chart with prices breaking above the 40-day moving average.
Corn had a high of 6.75, a new high for the move and the highest price going back to early November.
We are at some significant overhead resistance and technical indicators are about as overbought as they have been going back to September.
We believe this is an excellent place to be making sales.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices explode to the upside, they are up about 35-36 cents a bushels this morning to 15.22 and we closed at 14.89.
Beans still closed higher but 33 cents off the daily high.
We continue to see significant resistance around that $15 mark on old crop soybeans.
We did get mixed news for beans with new highs being good for the chart but a very disappointing close.
The current trend is pointed upwards with chart support at 14.75.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat had a good day with new highs made taking out the high at 8.79 posted about 2 weeks ago and we came right up to the downtrend line and the 40 day moving average.
Wheat prices closed at 8.79, 15 cents off the daily high.
We were unable to break through overhead resistance, but we will be watching over the next few days to see if the market can breakthrough and test the 9-9.13 level.
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