Closing Market Comments December 30, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

The 2 week forecast shows mostly dry conditions for Argentina and a few scattered showers in the southeast and northeast in the first week and mostly dry in the second week.

Brazil looks very good with adequate moisture across 85-90% of their growing region. The second week looks good as well.

Argentina 10-Day Precipitation Forecast

There is an area in southwestern Argentina that could get an inch of rain or better.

A few other scattered areas could see a half an inch of rain.

Observed Surface High Temperatures  

Yesterday’s high temperatures mostly in the 80s for Brazil’s growing region.

Very favorable with good moisture and seasonal temperatures.

Argentina remains mostly in the 90s.

The rain this weekend in Argentina will allow a small cool down but by mid to late next week we will see temperatures back in the upper 90s or low 100s.

Temperature Anomaly

This map shows temperatures over the first week, today December 30th through January 7th.

Temperatures above normal in Argentina’s growing region while mostly below normal temperatures in Brazil.

The second week of the forecast for Argentina could be even a little bit hotter.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

We are monitoring precipitation for two reasons.

One is the hard red winter wheat belt getting some precipitation.

Second to see if the overall drought conditions will be reduced.

We could get a half inch to .75 of an inch across portions of the northwestern belt and northern plains.

The eastern belt could get 1-2 inches of rain.

Down in the delta they could see 2-4 inches of rain.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn sales were okay at 782 thousand tons, that was within the range of expectations and slightly below the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean sales at 706 thousand tons also okay and within the range of expectations and double the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

This is the time of year we need to continue seeing good exports.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat exports were good, up near the upper end of expectations at 478 thousand tons.

That is well above the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices rallied to new highs today keeping the uptrend intact.

Todays close will be somewhat important if we can close above the downward trending line.

If the markets fall late in today’s trade, then this overhead resistance is still in place.

If corn could break through and close above this down trending line, then 7.04-7.11 would be the next area chart watchers would monitor.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices making a new high for the move up to 15.37.

We broke out above precious highs from early December at 14.97 and the September high at 15.08.

Chart watchers are going to be viewing the $15.72 level as the next target.

We are not convinced the market will get here but it’s a point on the chart to watch.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices higher today, challenging the high posted earlier this week at 8.94.

If wheat can break through this down trending line then 9.13 would become the next upside potential target.

If it doesn’t get bullish news, then we have chart support down in the 8.25-8.30 range.  

Questions or Comments