Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished sharply lower across the board today, outside markets putting a lot of pressure on the grains and some good rains over the weekend in Argentina added to the selling.
Grain Market News
Argentina 10-Day Precipitation Forecast
Last week on Friday they were thinking the weekend rain event could produce an inch or better.
So, there was an area of 1-inch rains in blue expected and then some scattered rains in the northeastern half of the country.
S.A. Weekend Rainfall
This map shows Argentina’s grain growing region and we can see a wide area got 1-2 inches and some over 2 inches in the southwestern portion.
The rest of the nation in the north and east still got 3/10 to 6/10 of an inch.
Portions of eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil got some rain as well.
S.A. 30-Day % of Normal
This shows most of the nation got 30-50% of normal over the past 30 days.
That extends into portions of eastern Paraguay, southern Brazil, and Uruguay as well.
They did not get 0, the rains that fell were at the 2-3 inches of rainfall.
South American Precipitation Forecast
The forecast is dry over the next 7 days for Argentina, that extends into the same areas we have been discussing.
The second week of the forecast still looks pretty dry for Argentina but better rains in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil.
Argentina’s forecast is still threatening but they did get some good rains over the weekend.
Temperature Anomaly
Anything in red is above average temperatures and anything in blue is below average.
Argentina looks to heat up significantly above normal combined with dry soils in many areas which is creating some threats to the crop.
Brazil looks to be in good shape except for the far southwestern area.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Anything above zero means the ocean temperatures are above average, anything below zero is lower or cooler than average.
Temperatures above average would be considered El Nino and below average would be La Nina.
We continue to be in cool ocean temperatures which is La Nina.
The El Nino conditions are expected to return closer to normal in April or May.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn exports down to 26.259 million bushels.
That is about half the level needed to reach USDA’s current export forecast.
We do expect exports to improve seasonally as we move through the winter months into March-May timeframe.
Exports are currently down 26.7%, USDA is projecting that exports will be down 16%.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean exports were down from last week to 53.75 million bushels.
That’s a little less than double the amount needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Current inspections are down 7.1%, USDA is projecting exports to be down 5.2%.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat exports were very disappointing at just 3 million bushels, a marketing year low.
That’s just a fraction of the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Year to date our exports are right at USDA’s target and our sales are close as well.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices had a very disappointing day today after somewhat of a reversal day on Friday prices are down sharply today.
That turns the technical indicator down not being able to break through overhead.
This market may be headed toward the 6.50 level if we can’t get some friendly news.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also turning sharply lower today on the chart.
That enough to turn the technical indicators lower as well.
Chart support is likely coming in around 14.70.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices did not fall as sharply as corn or beans but wheat has also been unable to breakout above overhead resistance.
We haven’t broken to the downside either, so it remains in a sideways range.
We are thinking $9 to $9.13 is a potential target as we move through January.
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