Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed to a little bit lower today as the Argentina forecast added some moisture to the forecast.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
Todays 2-week precipitation forecast shows that improvement in Argentina.
Eastern Argentina looks like it will get rains in the 1st week and western Argentina could get some in the second week of the forecast.
Brazil still looks to be mostly favorable for the producing region in both weeks.
S.A. 30-Day Precipitation – % of Normal
Both have showed dryness over all of Argentina extending into southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
The right-side shows percent of normal over the last 30 days with Argentina mostly below normal.
Observed Surface High Temps
This weekend was another period of the high heat.
Argentina’s growing region had mostly upper 90s and low 100s on Saturday.
Brazil primarily in the 80s.
Observed Surface High Temps- Sunday
Argentina had upper 90s and low 100s continuing.
Upper 70s and low 80s in Brazil.
Grain Market News
USDA Corn Yield Estimate
They don’t update production in December but as we look ahead to January, we see the estimates.
USDA’s estimate has been fairly steady through September-November with the most recent number at 172.3.
Down significantly from what would have been a trendline yield this year of 181.
USDA Soybean Yield Estimate
USDA lowered its U.S. soybean yield to 49.8 in the October report and then raised it to 50.2 in November.
We think the January report will come in close to the November estimate.
January Crop Report Yield Changes
Last year USDA made virtually no changes.
The blue bars, corn yields form November to January, were unchanged last year and the soybean bars were up 2/10 of a bushel in January.
Almost all of the changes over the last 19 years in soybeans have been around a half a bushel.
Combined Planted Acreage
This chart shows the acreage combined for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Years where there is big prevented plant like 2019, we had 18 million acres of prevented plant, which showed up in the June report following up with additional reports in October and slightly smaller in the final report.
2020 we had 9 million aces of prevented plant showing up in June and slight reductions in October and final reports.
This years prevented plant was 4.1 million acres larger than last year.
Acreage Changes from Nov. to Jan. Report
Last year various little changes were made in the grains.
Corn was up just slightly, soybeans and wheat down slightly.
So, the total was down slightly.
Bottom line we expect USDA to tweak the U.S. corn and soybean yield in either direction.
March Corn Chart
Corn closed at 6.53, down 1 cent today.
Corn prices after falling hard early last week are now stabilizing as the market waits for Thursdays January crop report.
This leaves chart support at 6.35.
The consolidation over the last 3 days has the technical showing signs of trying to level off.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices were hit hard early last week and bounced back late last week.
Soybeans have done a good job holding at the red line, the uptrend off the harvest lows.
Soybeans closed at 14.89 today.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat closed at 8.29 today, down 4 cents.
Wheat prices are in a long-term sideways range since back in June.
The intermediate trend is a gradual downtrend, and the short term is mostly a choppy sideways range.
We are currently at the lower end of the range, so we do not want to make any sales in wheat.
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