Closing Market Comments January 10, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today after an up and down mixed trade.

Grain Market News 

South American Precipitation Forecast

Todays 2-week precipitation forecast has removed some of the rain for Argentina but still has good rains in Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

The second week has some scattered rains as we mentioned in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

The majority of Brazil’s growing region should have good rain.

Temperature Anomaly

In addition to the dryness we have seen, temperatures also above normal.

For about the last month temperatures have been above normal in Argentina and generally cooler in Brazil.

Observed Surface High Temps- Monday

Upper 90s and lower 100s in almost all of Argentina’s growing region.

Brazil had upper 70s and low 80s in their growing regions.

Grain Market News

Corn and Soybean Production

You can see that its going to be record large production, even if the USDA cuts Argentina production it will still be record large.

Looking at soybeans, a massive increase this year is projected from 170.9mmt last year to 201.5 this year.

U.S. Yield and Production 2022

The average guess for corn yield is at 172.4, up from last month.

Soybeans at 50.3, also up from last month.

Looking at overall U.S. production, the corn production expected at 13.922 which is down fractionally from November.

Soybean production at 4.36 billion bushels is up from the November crop report.

U.S. and World Ending Stocks

The average trade guess for corn is 1.302, up 45 million bushels from last month.

Soybean stocks at 236 would be up 16 million bushels from last month.

Wheat stocks at 582, up 11 million bushels from December.

Global corn stocks at 298 versus 298.4 a month ago.

Global soybeans at 101.9 down .8 million metric tons from a month ago.

Global wheat at 268.3 up a million metric tons from last month.

Quarterly Stocks

Corn stocks at 11.187, soybeans at 3.145, and wheat at 1.347.

All three grains would be smaller than the December stock from a year ago.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices finished at 6.55 today.

Corn prices had an interesting day starting out lower and then rallying but closed close to the middle range and almost unchanged.

If we get bullish news 6.85 is overhead resistance if we get bearish news 6.35 is chart support.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices remain in an uptrend finishing at 14.85 today.

We believe we need to get bullish news in Thursdays crop report to keep the trend going or we are concerned we could breakout below the range.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices posted new lows at 8.03

A record large Russian crop that is being offered at dirt cheap is keeping global wheat prices depressed.

We believe what is at the low end of value or below fair value with the Russia/Ukraine war going on.

We do not want to be sellers of wheat currently.

Questions or Comments