Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mostly a little higher today on positioning ahead of USDA’s January crop report coming out tomorrow.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
We monitor and evaluate South American weather on a daily basis.
At this time, we don’t see any significant changes.
Brazil’s precipitation in the first week looks good and in the second week.
Argentina has some rain in the forecast but less than desired in week 1 and a potential for better rain in the second week.
Observed Surface High Temps
Temperatures mostly 80s in Brazil with a few lower 90s and higher 70s.
The hot temperatures yesterday were in almost all of Argentina’s growing regions.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production 2022
Yields we are expecting 172.4 in corn which is up from last month and down from last year.
Soybean yield is expected at 50.3 up from last month and down from last year.
Corn production expecting 13.922 down slightly from November’s report.
Soybean production is expecting 4.36, up 14 million bushels from last month.
U.S. and World Ending Stocks
U.S. stocks had corn at 1.302, soybeans at 236, and wheat at 582. All increased from last month.
World stocks had corn at 298, soybeans at 101.9, and wheat at 268.3. Corn and soybeans were down slightly from last month and wheat was up.
Quarterly Stocks
Corn at 11.187 down from last year, soybeans at 3.145 down slightly from a year ago, and wheat at 1.347 down from last year.
The average trade guess is expecting USDA will lower its stock number about a half a billion bushel from last year.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production did improve significantly from last week’s disastrous number at 844 coming in at 933.
That’s still well below the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.
Due to a slow start to the ethanol grinding season and a slow 3 weeks here with the holidays, it is possible USDA could lower corn use for ethanol.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stock of fuel ethanol declined significantly down to 23.8 million barrels.
That brings us much more in line with a seasonal tendency for ethanol stocks compared to the record large stocks in December.
Ethanol production was up from last week and stocks were down from last week, generally considered lightly supportive.
Ethanol Profit Margin
After about 2 months of negative margins, lowered corn prices combined with lower natural gas prices and higher distiller grain has allowed ethanol margins to improve.
March Corn Chart
Corn closed at 6.56.
Corn prices up a little bit today but for the most part they have been chopping sideways for a week now.
Bearish news could push us down to the 6.35 level of chart support.
Bullish news could push us up to 6.85 at overhead resistance.
March Soybean Chart
Soybeans closed at 14.93.
Soybean prices were higher today but overall, still stuck in a very narrow range.
The long-term trend is sideways but the intermediate trend is up, and the short term is mostly chopping sideways.
Bullish news could test the highs in the lower $15 range and bearish news would test initial chart support at 14.65.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat closed at 8.22.
Wheat is also developing a sideways range back to last summer.
The intermediate trend is down, and the short-term trend is down as well.
We did have a nice move to the upside today.
We are seeing signs the wheat market may be turning to the upside.
This is no place to be making sales.
Questions or Comments
