Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mostly higher today following through on yesterday’s bullish news from the USDA and stronger closes.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks
Yesterday’s estimate at 1.242 is a very low or tight stocks number.
That should add support to the market until we have better confirmation of planted acres and a good start to the growing season next Spring.
U.S. Corn
Corn stocks at 1424 would be equal to the level from about 2 years ago.
Currently, we are not running out of corn, so we do not need to take prices high to ration demand, but they do remain tight.
U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks
210 million bushels of ending stock is relatively tight.
It’s not as tight as what was being projected, but its still a tight number.
U.S. Soybeans
The 210 would be our lowest ending stocks, not the lowest estimate we’ve seen but prices moved high enough to ration demand.
We are not running out yet, but stocks are tight.
U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks
Wheat stocks are the tightest we’ve seen over the last 9 years at 567.
There is not much room for error or increased demand.
U.S. Wheat
The monthly estimate shows the 567 million bushels are below the tight stock year following the 2012 drought.
Prices are likely to be somewhat supportive until bigger crop can be confirmed down the road.
U.S. Grain Stocks
USDA is projecting that stocks will be below the level of what is been at the last 2 years, well below the high stock years, but not quite as low as the years following the 2012 drought.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
This chart is very similar to what we’ve seen on a regular basis for the last 2-3 months.
Less than desired amounts of rain in Argentina and adequate to surplus rain in most of Brazil.
The second week of the forecast is calling for a similar pattern with almost all of Brazil in good shape and concerns in Argentina.
Observed Surface High Temps
There was some rain on Tuesday and Wednesday in South America and following that frontal boundary temperatures have cooled off in Argentina.
The temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid-80s which is significantly better than the 100s.
Brazil is continuing to have very good conditions.
Temperature Anomaly
Unfortunately for Argentina temperatures expected to heat up into the upper 90s and low 100s next week and Brazil remains below normal.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices surged yesterday on bullish crop reports from the USDA.
That had some follow through today.
The corn markets high today at 6.76, a 28 cent rally off the lows posted a few days ago.
We believe that USDA’s report is friendly enough to push up to the previous highs at 6.85.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also working higher.
A nice rally yesterday with some follow through today.
Today’s high at 15.33 is up 68 cents off the low posted just week ago.
We believe that USDA’s crop report is bullish enough to push us up towards the upper end of the range at 15.37 which we did today.
The chart looks good as well as the technical.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have also bounced off of the lows.
The wheat market has already rallied 44 cents in 3 days.
Overhead resistance coming at 8.65-8.70.
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