Grain markets finished mostly lower today as fresh bullish news was lacking and Argentina weather looks to improve soon.
Grain Market News
Argentina is still going to have a couple days of heat.
Today’s highs in the 90s and 100s and tomorrow mostly 90s.
Soaking Rain in Argentina
Soaking rain is being forecast for Argentina.
The forecast shows 2-3 inches of rain for most of the growing region.
The 14-day forecast 3 inches plus is expected.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
In the U.S. we have seen some good rains in portions of the central plains, much of Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and northern Kansas.
Anywhere from a half inch in the brightest green up to 2 inches of rain in central Nebraska.
30-Day Observed Precipitation
This is total melted precipitation which could have been rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet.
Anything in bright green is 2 inches and anything in dark green is 4 inches plus.
Very good rain across the central plains and northwestern belt.
The fact that the weather patterns are allowing for this moisture is seen as a positive.
Grain Market News
North Dakota and South Dakota are the 2 states that are the most prone to prevented plant acres.
It’s not just that there is a lot of snow on the ground, this snowpack has a lot of moisture in it.
Snow Water Equivalent
Looking at the pink in North Dakota, South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota that 6-10 inches of moisture within the snowpack.
Number 1 that snow pack could expand over the next couple of months and 2 if we would get rain this Spring that would contribute to the melting snow, we could have significant water issues.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Production expanded significantly for the second week in a row up to 1.008 million barrels per day.
That’s still a little short of the level needed to reach the USDA’s estimate.
Current year to date is down 4.2% and the estimate is down 1%.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Despite larger production, weekly stocks of fuel ethanol declined down to 23.395 million barrels.
That’s the first time we’ve been below the year ago level this marketing year.
Overall today’s weekly ethanol production report was lightly supportive.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices are in an overall sideways range in place back to August.
The USDA crop report combined with Argentina drought pushed us to 5.88 yesterday and that’s up near the upper end of the range and close to matching the highs posted between Christmas and New Year’s.
We believe USDA’s report was bullish enough to push us to that level but to move towards $7 we believe it would take fresh bullish news.
Without bullish news we could see this market pulling back into the lower 6.60’s and that’s about 15 cents below where we are trading.
March Soybean Chart
Soybeans closed at 15.15 today.
Soybeans had prices rally up to catch some new highs but did not take out the high from May.
This market remains in a sideways range.
Yesterday’s reversal down combined with follow through today is starting to hint the chart may turn lower.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat closed at
Wheat has also turned lower over the last couple of days hooking the technical down.
We cannot rule out additional selling.
The short-term wheat could test some lower levels of chart support but longer term we believe this is the lower end of range and no place to be making sales.
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