Grain markets finished mixed today as there continues to be no story strong enough to allow prices to break out.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
Brazil has mostly favorable precipitation for week 1 and week 2.
The only complaint in Brazil may be the northern areas would like a little dryer weather for harvest and extreme southern Brazil could use some more rain.
In Argentina there are some light rains on about 50% coverage. Week 2 shows good rains from 1-3 inches of rain in the west and very little in the east.
Argentina 5-Day Precip Forecast
The 5 day precipitation for Argentina does show that quarter to an inch and a quarter rains across half of Argentina’s growing area.
This morning radar shows those rains beginning to develop, nothing extremely heavy but additional rains starting to fall.
S.A. High Temperatures Yesterday
Argentina was expected to start cooling off this week, but temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s.
So current temperatures are warmer than what was expected.
It is worth noting that the temperatures remain in the 90s but was forecasted for the 80s this week.
Today’s temperatures at 6am are not as cold as they were yesterday.
A few locations below zero, mostly in areas with snow covering while the areas to the south that lack snow coverings mostly in the upper singles digits or teens.
This shows yesterday morning’s lows, you can see a lot more below zero temperatures all the way into southwest Kansas.
Our thoughts are that these temperatures don’t do the crops any good but no major damages.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production increased for the 4th week in a row to 1.028 million barrels per day.
That is right at the level needed to reach the current USDA estimate.
Unfortunately, our year-to-date production is down 4%, USDA is estimating corn use for ethanol will be down 1%.
Corn: Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Good news is ethanol stocks declined to 24.448 million barrels.
That’s 5.4% below the year ago level.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices are in a very gradual uptrend over the last couple of months.
Today’s trade is somewhat disappointing, it does appear the market may be trying to turn lower in the short term.
The good news is corn was able to bounce back and close fractionally higher.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had a disappointing day on the chart not taking out yesterday’s high at 15.43 and closed with double digit losses.
We are still in an uptrend, but unless soybeans get bullish news soon a test of chart support around $15 cannot be ruled out.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had a good day making a new high up to 8.85.
We are still about a dime from the highs posted around the first of the year.
At this time, wheat certainly has developed a short term uptrend but technical indicators are very overbought.
Chart support is at 22.214.171.124.
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