Grain markets finished lower across the board today on a lack of fresh, bullish news and an advancing South American harvest.
Grain Market News
South American Precipitation Forecast
We view the forecast as mostly non-threatening.
Argentina on the southern portion of the map has rains in the northern and northwestern areas in the first week and almost the entire growing region has rain in the forecast in the second week.
Brazil we see some moderate to heavy rains in the first week but the second week shows dryer conditions.
Grain Market News
NOPA Soybean Crush
Soybean crush is a little over half of U.S. demand.
The January soybean crush came in below the year ago level, that’s the third month in a row we’ve ran below a year ago level.
Our year to date is down 9/10 of 1%, USDA is estimating soybean crush will be up 1.2%.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production did improve slightly to 1.014 million barrels per day.
That is just slightly below the level needed to reach USDA’s corn use for ethanol estimate.
Our year-to-date ethanol grind is down 3.6% from last year. USDA is estimating it will be down 1.4%.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stocks increased sharply up to 25.344 million barrels.
That is down just fractionally from last year at this time but near the record for late February.
Today’s U.S. ethanol report was considered mostly neutral for corn prices.
U.S. Drought Monitor
The U.S. drought monitor shows that although drought has been eased in the northern plains, drought is still in place.
In fact most areas west of the Mississippi River except for the delta region are still having drought conditions.
Drought conditions in the eastern belt down into the delta for the most part had been removed over the last 2-3 months.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 7 days we have gotten some soaking rains, nothing heavy but a half to ¾ for totals.
These rains have fell mostly over the last day or two days.
Out in some very dry areas like eastern Colorado and western Kansas we have some snow developing.
It is expected to move off to the east and northeast over the next 24 hours.
3-Day Snowfall Forecast
The blue area is 6-8 inches of snow across the central plain and western belt, specifically central and southern Iowa.
We realize this precipitation is expected to fall as snow, but it does show the current weather patterns are allowing for moisture in some of the dryer areas.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices have found some fairly solid overhead resistance at 6.88 which has been hit multiple times over the last couple of months.
Chart support is now in the lower 6.60 area.
Technical indicators did hook down, but they are in a neutral range bouncing and forth.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also have overhead resistance form the last couple of months in the 15.45-15.55 range.
A lack of bullish news and harvest advancing in Brazil allowed prices to push down toward chart support in today’s trade.
We’ve been able to get some bullish news to keep prices in an uptrend.
We continue to find overhead resistance as we get up towards the 15.50 level.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in an uptrend off the low’s posted during January.
After hitting a new high yesterday at 9.21, wheat prices have pulled back and are now testing chart support.
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