Closing Market Comments February 23, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets are sharply lower as the USDA outlook forum did not produce any bullish news.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Today’s weekly ethanol production number at 1.029 million barrels per day which is slightly above the level needed for USDAs current estimate.

Our year to date we can see ethanol production is down 3.4% from last year, USDA is estimating that corn use for ethanol will be down 1.4%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Weekly stocks have increased slightly to 25.59 million barrels.

That’s slightly above last year and a record large level for this year.

Ethanol Swaps

One concern is that ethanol swaps traded in Chicago about $2.18 per gallon. They’ve been there for the last couple of months, and this is not good for ethanol margins.

Western IA Ethanol Plant Returns

This chart shows that ethanol plant margins in Iowa are down sharply recently at some of the lowest levels we have seen in about 2 years.

This is not good news; we would like to see the profitability for the ethanol plant increasing in the weeks or months to come.

Brazilian February Soybean Exports

This is a chart that shows Brazil’s soybean exports in February and at this point based on ship line its estimated that Brazil’s exports of soybeans could be record large.

March Corn Chart

Corn had a sharp break putting prices at the bottom end of our upward trending channel.

If this area where corn is trading right now does not hold then we cannot rule out a move toward the 6.48 level.

It is worth noting that for the moment we are sitting right on chart support.  

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down today but they are still within their overall up trending channel.

Chart support come sin around 15.25 on the March chart, if that doesn’t hold a spike low from February at 15.05 is the next support.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices broke below their trendline yesterday and now testing support at the 20- and 40-day moving averages.

The fact we broke through the trend line is not a positive note from a chart or technical perspective.

Questions or Comments