Closing Market Comments March 7, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly lower today as the outside markets provided a big negative influence in today’s trade.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks 2022-23

The trade expects corn at 1.299 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels from last month but below last year.

Soybeans at 219 million bushels, down 6 million from last month and down significantly from last year.

Wheat is at 576 million bushels, up 8 million bushels from last month and down sharply from last year.

South American 2023 Production

The trade expects Brazilian corn production to be unchanged at 125mmt.

Expected to leave soybean production unchanged at 153 as well.

Due to severe drought the trade is anticipating that Argentina corn and bean crop will be lowered.

The trade expects USDA to come in with Argentina corn crop at 43.2mmt versus 47 last month.

Argentina soybean crop expected to come in at 36.3 versus 41mmt last month.

World Ending Stocks 2022-23

Looking for corn at 293.7 down from last month due to crop losses.

Soybeans at 100.1 also down from last month due to crop losses.

Wheat stocks expected to be up just fractional from last month’s report.

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows 1-3 inches of rain with isolated 4+ in the Delta region.

Its still early but the Delta will begin planting mid-March so will want to start seeing dryer weather for planting conditions.

In the northern belt it’s all about snow.

Snow of 5-8 inches and in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa 10-12 inches of snow is possible.

10-Day Snowfall Forecast

Anything in the mid purple is a foot or more of snowfall.

So, there is potential for some big snows in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa into Wisconsin, and possibly based on this map even northwest Illinois.

South America Vegetation Health

On the left side is the index change from last week.

If we highlight Argentina’s growing area, we can see more brown areas than any other color, which means the crop condition has declined over the last week.

On the right side is the vegetation health from last year. You can see that Argentina has major problems due to drought extending into Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil as well.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices consolidating after bouncing off the lows last week.

The corn market has been consolidating for about a week now waiting for fresh news.

Technical indicators have also leveled off very close to the oversold level.

If we get negative news a test of the recent lows at 6.22 cannot be ruled out and friendly news the initial objective would be 6.48.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean price shad a corrective day to the downside.

Keep in mind beans rallied 61 cents in about a weeks’ time so a corrective day to the downside shouldn’t be unexpected.

Prices came back down to the area where all the major moving averages are converging in the middle of the sideways range.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are going into the report with prices at the lowest price we’ve seen in an extended period.

Chart at the lower end of the range and technical near zero so this is not a place to be making sales.

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