Closing Market Comments March 8, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed but mostly lower today s USDA did not provide any big surprises in the March crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

Corn stock sat 1342 came in above the average trade guess and up from last month.

Soybeans at 210 came in below the average trade guess and down 15 million from last month.

Wheat at 568 were unchanged from last month and a little smaller than what the trade was expecting.

World Ending Stocks

Corn at 296.5 was above the average trade guess and above last month.

Soybean at 100mmt almost right on the average trade guess but down form last month.

Wheat came in at 267.2mmt which was below the average trade guess and down from last month.

South American Production 2023

Brazilian corn and soybeans were left unchanged.

Argentina was looking for USDA to lower corn and soybean production. They did and even more than expected.

Argentina corn crop at 40mmt, well below the guess and down 7mmt from last month.

Argentina soybeans at 33mmt, over 3 million below the average trade guess and down 8mmt from last month.

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

10-Day Precipitation Forecast

We are monitoring the weather for the wrapping up of the South American growing season.

Argentina looks mostly dry over the next 10 days, that’s not good for the late finishing crop.

The rest of Brazil has normal weather for central Brazil while northern Brazil could see heavy rains.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Painting has begun in the U.S.; Texas has reported corn planting 20% complete.

As we move to the middle and late part of March the planting will push into the delta, earl April into the southern Delta, mid-April the central belt, and then late April into the northwestern belt and northern plains.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices down today on larger than expected stocks, prices now testing 6.22.

We mentioned yesterday that overhead was at 6.48 and chart support at 6.22.

We are very close to the lows posted a week ago.

We can’t rule out a little more downside in corn, but overall prices are close to chart support and technical back into the oversold area.

This is no place to be making sales.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans were higher when the crop report came out, but lower corn and wheat did pull soybeans back off the daily high.

Beans did find support in the middle of the trading range where all the moving averages converge.

Soybeans did get some friendly fundamental news with stocks falling by 15 million bushels.

Soybeans are trying to determine if they will go up independently or follow corn a little bit lower.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat made new lows today with a very choppy day.

We finished lower btu wheat prices did rally back in the KC wheat market closing at $8 after hitting a low of 7.89 this morning.

The rally back to the $8 level is somewhat positive with prices at the lower end of the range and technical near zero.

We believe there is more upside potential than downside risk at this time and would not be making any sales in wheat.

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