Closing Market Comments March 13, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, funds were liquidating longs in corn and soybeans while buying back shorts in wheat.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation

Keep in mind last week USDA lowered the Argentina corn crop by 7mmt and lowered the bean crop by 8mmt.

The drought conditions are severe, ongoing, and additional crop losses in Argentina are expected.

Precipitation has been below normal to no precipitation.

High Temperatures

Combine those dry conditions with high temperatures across nearly all the belt over the weekend.

There is some rain in the forecast specifically in the southwestern portion of Argentina this week.

Grain Market News

Temperature Outlook

The temperature forecast for the 6-10 day is below normal for the entire central U.S. continuing in the 8-14 day forecast as well.

Combined with cooler than normal temperatures have wet conditions in the south where they are trying to plant, dryer in the great lakes in the 6-10, but most of the belt is above precipitation in the 8-14.

U.S. Snow Depth

Generally, about 2 feet of snow in the eastern Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

In many of these areas it will take a couple of weeks for this snow to melt if not longer.

We need to start seeing temperatures warming up soon if we are going to have a normal planting season.

U.S. Snowpack

Most of the Dakotas and Minnesota primary growing region have any where from 4-6 inches of moisture in that snowpack with some areas seeing 8-10 inches of moisture.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections are final improving seasonally at 39.3 million bushels.

That’s the best number this marketing year but still a little below the weekly total of 50 million bushels needed.

We will need to see some totals above the 50 million bushels mark in the March-June timeframe if we are going to reach USDA target.

Corn is down 37.1% from a year ago and USDA is projecting we will be down 22% at the end of the marketing year.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports are declining seasonally right now.

This week exports are at 22.7 million bushels, not a big number but it is above the 17.6 million needed weekly.

Our year to date exports are up 2.5% from a year ago, USDA projected exports will be down 7.8%.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat down sharply from the previous couple of weeks at 9.1 million bushels.

That is only about half the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

Our year-to-date exports are down 2% with USDA expecting wheat to be down 3.1%

May Corn Chart

Corn had an outside day up taking out Fridays high giving us a light positive on the chart, but we turned around closing lower.

Technical indicators oversold and we are seeing a little divergence which is potential for bottoming action.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans have been extremely choppy going back to December.

The market has traded up and down in a choppy, sideways range for the last 3 months.

This market did make a new low today at 14.91.

This indicates this market may be in a position to test the multiple lows in the 14.70s.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also showing signs of potential bottoming action with an outside day up today.

Russia says it will allow the Ukrainian shipping corridor to be extended by 60 days.

Bottom-line is the wheat prices did close higher today and looked good at the close.

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