Closing Market Comments March 16, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly higher today as strong exports and a stabilizing of the outside markets allowed some buying.

Grain Market News

Corn: Commodity Funds

2014-2020 was a good example of where we had surplus supplies of corn and the funds were often holding a short position.

In times of a shortage and high prices like 2010-2012 the funds tend to hold along position which has been the case the last 2.5 years.

Soybean: Commodity Funds

Soybean funds are long 129,000 contracts.

Wheat: Commodity Funds

Wheat funds have been short in wheat since June of 2022.

In fact, the most recent data shows the funds were short 91,000 contracts in the Chicago wheat market.

That’s the largest short position going back to 2017.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Last week’s corn export sales came in at 1.4mmt with no sale to China.

This week USDA’s weekly total was 1.23mmt with just 73 thousand tons to China, only 6%.

The majority, almost all of the sales in the last week, have been to other destinations not China.

Soybean: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sale today came in at 665 thousand tons, which is a dramatic improvement from last week.

We only need 220 thousand per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat sales also improved up to 337 thousand tons which is right at the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices making a new high for this move today.

The chart still looks very good, technical indicators look good as well.

We believe this market may be eyeing overheard resistance around 6.36-6.48 level.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been trending lower, there has been a trend of buying corn and selling beans lately.

Soybean prices have gotten very close to the chart support that has been in place back to December.

Today’s close at 14.91 was slightly higher on the day, therefore today’s action was a very small reversal to the upside.

Overhead resistance is at the low $15 range.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look good from a chart perspective although they were not able to make a new high today.

Overhead resistance is at the 20-day average and with some friendly news the next objective would be the 40-day moving average at 8.46.

Questions or Comments