Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished lower today on chart and technical selling following the recent break and on an improved forecast next week.
Grain Market News
Outlook
The 6-10 days are much above normal temperatures in virtually the entire belt and above normal temperature sin the 8-14 as well.
Next week will be dry but the 6–10-day forecast does show increasing precipitation.
The weather forecast for the northern plains could be problematic in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota but favorable for the southern and southwestern plains.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past week we’ve seen heavy precipitation in the northern plains, much of that falling in two separate snowstorms.
The central belt into the western belt they have seen some drying.
Unfortunately, the southwestern plains have been drying over the last week with some significant wind and dust storms.
U.S. Temperatures
This week we actually added to the snowpack in the northern plains.
National Weather Forecast
We have been in La Nina over the past 2 years.
But this winter and the current time frame we are now neutral.
The forecast is calling for rapidly warming temperatures, this could be a strong El Nino by the time we get to mid-summer.
El Nino could mean favorable weather for the corn and bean belt, but other forecasters believe a rapid transition could mean bouts of heat this summer.
Grain Market News
Corn Acres
Corn is estimated to increase to 92 million planted acres, last year it was 88.6.
Our guess is the final planted acres will be closer to 90 million.
Soybean Acres
Soybean acres estimated at 87.5, the same as last year.
If we have difficulties, it’s likely the bulk of prevented plant will be in the corn and spring wheat market.
Wheat Acres
Winter wheat planted area 37.5, up 4.2 million acres from last year.
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Corn sales were very good at 1.247mmt, that’s nearly 3 times the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales
Export sales for soybeans were somewhat disappointing at just 155 thousand tons, that’s below the level needed to reach the export forecast.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat exports were also disappointing but with just 7-8 weeks left in the marketing year we believe that exports are close to reaching the USDA target.
May Corn Chart
Corn made a new low for the move; we have reconfigured the chart slightly because we did take out the 6.48 bottom from January.
This opens for a move down to 6.36, which is 7 cents below today’s close.
The 20-day moving average comes in at 6.39, this is our next target if we can’t get some friendly news.
The chart has turned lower and the technical indicators as well.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices have also turned lower in the short term on the cart which turned the technical down.
The next level of significant chart support is at a multiple bottom at 14.70.
We closed at 14.92 today.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have also had a pullback off the highs posted earlier this week which turn the technical down.
There are additional downside risks without friendly news next week.
Chart support is down at 8.40-8.50 levels.
Questions or Comments
