Closing Market Comments May 16, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished sharply lower today as U.S. weather looks pretty good, the trend for new crop corn and beans is down, and economic data is not positive.  

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

Corn is at 65% complete, that is ahead of the 5-year average which is 59%.

The weather forecast looks good enough that planting should advance nicely into the low or mid 80s for next week.

U.S. Soybean Planting Progress

Soybeans are at 49% complete compared to 36% on average.

We expect next week will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Winter Wheat Conditions

Wheat was left unchanged at 29% good to excellent, which is slightly above last year’s rating.

U.S. Topsoil Moisture

As of last week, 25% of U.S. corn and bean acres were short to very short and this week that is down to 17%.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

For nay acres that are not planted we have a relatively dry forecast across most of the belt.

If you happen to be in a dry pocket, a forecast for just one or two tenths of rain is not very much so you may be disappointed.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

New crop ending stocks are forecast at 2.222 billion bushels, that is a huge increase from this year.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks

Soybeans are projected at 335, this year stocks at 215.

Nonetheless USDA is projecting a big increase in stocks next year based on record yields for soybeans this year.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

Wheat shows that next year’s stocks projected at 556, this would be the 7th year in a row of a decline in wheat stocks.

Combined Stocks

USDA is projecting a significant increase above our current stock, maybe not as high as the 2016-2019 timeframe, but there will be an increase.

May Corn Chart

Corn has shown a very choppy trade over the last 3 weeks.

Mostly from $5.70-$6, so about a 30-cent trading range.

The current chart support at the lows posted 2 weeks ago at 5.69 with overhead resistance at $6.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices made a new low for the move today down at 13.85.

Technical indicators are back in the oversold range.

There is no sign of bottoming action, but this is no place to be making sales.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat rallied $1.76 in 2 weeks from the lows on May 2nd at 7.36 to the high yesterday at 9.12.

Wheat closed at 8.95.

Dryness developing in the Canadian prairies where a lot of spring wheat is grown, some dryness in Russia’s wheat crop region, as well as the question mark as to if the Ukrainian Shipping Corridor will be renewed all contributing to this big bounce.

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