Closing Market Comments May 18, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed to mostly a little bit lower today with disappointing export sales.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn export sales shows negative sales of -339 thousand tons that includes the Chinese cancellation.

This is the second time in the last 3 weeks that there has been a net cancellation.

The recent cancellations by China could have the USDA lowering the export forecast further in the June crop report.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports are typically small at this time of the year with today having sales near zero at just 17 thousand tons.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Old crop sales typically can be zero or even negative as we wrap up the marketing year for wheat.

Today was a negative 42 thousand tons but the new crop was 336.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois are mixed with some areas above and some below.

We do have some dry areas scattered throughout the belt, areas with tan color are less than half of normal.

South Dakota and portions of northern Ohio and southern Michigan are seeing some dryness.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

There was excessive rain that fell in southern Minnesota late last week and over the weekend.  

U.S. Rivers in Flood Stage

From southern Minnesota through Iowa and down to St Louis where we had major flooding on the Mississippi river, that water has now receded, and just minor flooding remains.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar shows mostly dry conditions across the heart of the belt.

We have a few areas with lighter rains in far northeastern North Dakota, showers in Minnesota, down in the southeast U.S., and out in the western plains.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows not much rain in the forecast, for the most part less than a quarter of an inch is expected across the belt.


The forecast is monthly non-threatening with above normal temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 days.

But in May above normal is not a bad thing.

Precipitation is wetter to the west and dryer to the east in the 6-10 and 8-14.  


May Corn Chart

Corn prices have been in a free fall the last 3.5 days.

Today’s low at 5.47 is a new low for the move.

With that in mind there is no sign of bottoming action, but if we look at the pattern that’s been developing it’s a sharp downtrend.

The market could bounce into the $6 range on a correction.

If the market was able to go toward the $6 range that would be nearly a 50-cent rally.

Yet the market would still be in a longer-term downtrend.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are also in a downtrend.

That downtrend has been accelerating recently with today’s low at 13.23 on the nearby July chart.

Therefore, there is still no sign of bottoming action at this time.

Even if you were a bear you would have to respect the fact that this market could easily bounce into overhead resistance at the 13.83 level.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat had a sideways range in place for an extended period of time.

In early May we broke out to the downside but that didn’t hold.

Recently we broke out to the upside which has not held either.

The bulk of our trading has been in a sideways range over the past 5-6 months.

The sharply lower prices of the last couple of days have turned our technical indicators lower.

Questions or Comments