Grain markets finished higher today as the trade is adding some risk premium based on a warm, dry forecast for next week.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last week we have virtually seen no precipitation in the belt.
The best rains have been falling in the southwestern plains into Texas and Oklahoma.
In the heart of the belt much of Nebraska, almost all of Iowa, much of Illinois, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and most of South Dakota has seen no rain except for a few isolated areas.
Today’s radar is virtually free of precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
There is some rain in portions of western Nebraska and down into Texas and Oklahoma.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Most of the U.S. belt is expecting little to no precipitation.
The light green is less than 1/10th of an inch.
In addition, we are going to see temperatures start to ramp up.
The highs next week on Tuesday are mostly in the mid to upper 80s in the heart of the belt.
Those temperatures are not extreme but with a lack of moisture and dirt still showing, which means soil moisture evaporation will be more rapid than it would be later in the summer.
The 6-10 day forecast still shows above normal temperatures for most of the belt and the 8-14 day does show some moderation.
The precipitation pattern looks like what has been forecasted all week long.
April 2023 Precipitation
The dryness was considered almost ideal last week for getting planting, field work, spraying, fertilizer, and more done.
This week has been mostly dry across the belt but now that planting is wrapped up farmers are looking for some rain.
The April precipitation across the entire belt was below normal.
We have seen a continuation of below normal precipitation for most of the belt.
To get crops planted early you do need to have dryer than normal conditions.
The dryer weather in April to May was considered favorable but now that we are approaching June concerns are increasing for soil moisture.
Grain Market News
May Corn Chart
Corn markets are in a steep uptrend off the lows posted last week.
Today’s high was 59 cents above last Thursdays low.
There is no sign of topping action yet but if this market can push towards our downtrend line, technical indicators could be overbought by next week.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices saw a nice rally today with an outside day up.
The fact that we had an outside day up and closed above yesterday’s high is a good signal from a short-term chart perspective, this also turned the technical up.
If we can get just a little bit of friendly news the next target would be 13.83.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been extremely volatile up and down.
We are well below last week’s highs and well above the lows from early May, in fact we are close to the middle of our long-term trading range.
The rain in the plains has certainly put a damper on the wheat market, but European wheat was up sharply today.
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