Corn and soybeans finished higher today as crop conditions declined more than expected, but there is rain in the forecast which kept prices under control.
Grain Market News
14-Day Observed Precipitation
The eastern corn belt down to the delta has received very little to no rain over the last 2 weeks.
We have seen scattered rain in the western corn belt with general rain in the plains.
Just 3 weeks ago there were really no issues in the eastern corn belt and very quickly we have gone to 72% short in Illinois, 688% short in Indiana, and in the 70s for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
The central belt like Minnesota has gone from 7% to 34%, Iowa 55% short, and Missouri 75% short.
Oklahoma and Colorado are now in pretty good shape.
U.S. Topsoil Moisture
That 57.7 is rounded to 58% which is the driest for any week during our growing season going back to 2013.
Corn and Soybean Topsoil Moisture
We are now the driest we have been in over almost 20 years at this time of year.
U.S. Corn Crop Condition
The combination of dry soil and hot temperatures over the last week allowed the corn crop conditions to drop by 5% to 64%.
U.S. Soybean Crop Condition
The initial rating came in at 62%, last year’s rating was 70%.
So, we are coming in below average for the soybean conditions.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Markets are being cautious because the forecast is adding rain.
In fact, .75-1 inch is now forecast over the next week in the eastern belt as well as the southern belt.
The northern belt is only expecting scattered rains.
The 6-10 and 8-14 day has temperatures close to normal in the heart of the belt with a little warmer to the north and cooler to the south.
But then heat starts to come in in the 3rd week of June.
Precipitation still shows dryer conditions to the north, wetter to the south, with near normal across the heart of the belt in the 6-10 day.
The 8-14-day show near normal conditions for most of the belt and wetter conditions out in the north and west.
If the forecast verifies the weather service is projecting improvement in the moisture.
If the weather service is correct the soil moisture would improve, which is keeping markets in check.
May Corn Chart
Corn was unable to make new highs today, so yesterday’s high of 5.48 is intact.
We did close higher for the day though which left the chart pointed upward.
Technical indicators are overbought.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did not make a new high today but did close a bit higher, so the chart is pointed upward.
The technical indicators are pointed upward.
We are in an area of consolidation and have been unable to breakout above that.
The next area of overhead resistance would be near 12.50.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices exploded to the upside overnight last night posting a high of 8.47.
We did close nearly unchanged on the day though.
Wheat has very quickly rallied towards the middle of its sideways trading range.
Chart support is down at 7.63 with overhead resistance just shy of the $9 level.
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