Grain markets finished mostly lower today as the weather forecast is showing improving chances for rain this weekend and next week.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production 2023
U.S. Ending Stocks
South American 2023 Production
World Ending Stocks
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production surged to 1.036 million barrels per day last week, that’s the highest level we have seen back to the middle of December.
Production is getting close to the level needed to reach the current USDA projection.
Year to date is running behind USDA’s target, we are down 2.7% and the USDA projection is 1.5%.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
We saw an increase in ethanol stocks for a second week in a row up to 22.9 million barrels.
That is still 2.9% below the year-ago level.
Gasoline use over the past week was about equal to a year ago.
4 of the last 5 weeks have shown U.S. gasoline consumption above the year ago level which is good news.
Grain Market News
The current weather is still stressful.
Yesterday’s high temperatures were in the mid-80s to low 90 across almost the entire belt.
The exception would be in the lower Great Lake states where some upper 70s and low 80s were reported.
This shows there is a front from Minnesota through Iowa and down through the southern portion of the eastern belt.
Cooler, dryer air is being seen in the far eastern belt but along this frontal boundary we are seeing a few showers.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast shows that frontal boundary draped across the southern and eastern belts over the next week.
That would allow for anywhere from .75-1.25 inches in most of the eastern belt and 1-2 inches in the southwestern areas.
While lesser totals are expected in the far north.
The forecast looks mostly non-threatening.
Temperatures at or around average across most of the belt in the 6-10 day and then a little bit warmer in the 8-14 day.
Precipitation is near normal in the heart of the belt, little more to the south and the 8–14-day forecast is normal to slightly above normal.
May Corn Chart
Corn prices had an outside day down meaning we took out yesterday’s low.
We did have a clear breakout above the 40-day moving average.
The short term does look somewhat toppy and the technical indicators are hooking downwards.
Weather is the primary driver, the weather forecast improved, which was enough to turn our chart downward.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices consolidated with an inside trading day.
Overall, the chart still looks pretty good as long as we can hold this chart support and technical indicators are still pointed upward.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat has been the most volatile of the grains.
Within the last 2 weeks sharp down, sharp up and so on.
Not only over the last 2 weeks but over the last 5-6 months.
Chart support is down in the 7.63 range with overhead resistance around 8.85.
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