Grain markets finished mixed today as grain prices are pausing for a moment following the big rally over the last few weeks to determine if weather Is going to continue to stretch crops or if it will improve.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 7 days there has been some good rain.
Areas like Ohio and portions of eastern Indiana have received good rain.
There has been a pocket of good rain in central Iowa and then the Delta did receive some rain as well as the plain states.
A good portion of Illinois and southern Indiana has completely missed out and the eastern Dakotas as well as other isolated areas.
We still see an area where rain has been short of normal.
Less than 25% of normal and some less than 10% less of normal.
In addition to lack of moisture, yesterday we seen temperatures start to ramp up in the plains.
South Dakota saw plenty of 100s with 90s scattered across most of the plains and 90s scattered within portions of the heart of the belt.
These temperatures are not extreme in the heart of the belt around 90 but certainly going to be stressful if you are in a dry pocket.
Today’s radar shows virtually no rain across the belt.
The only area is scattered showers in portions of Ohio.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There is a very good rain forecast in central, western Nebraska into North and South Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
Much of that would be welcome.
Unfortunately, we have less than a half of an inch expected across much of the heart of the belt.
Soil Moisture Change
This shows that the area where soil moisture will likely decline over the next week in the heart of the belt while we see improvement to the north and east.
The heart of the belt will continue to see soil moisture decline based on today’s forecast.
Soil Moisture Anomaly Change
This shows a continuation of that same pattern with soil moisture declining across the heart of the belt and improvement to the north and east
Our 6-10 day calls for above normal temperatures as well as the 8-14 day which isn’t the best news for this time of year.
Precipitation does not look overly threatening but this projection for normal rainfall in the heart of the belt has not been able to verify.
The weather determines our crop yields and ultimately production in the supply and demand balance sheet.
As weather affects crops, we can sometimes get an indication from the vegetation health index.
The Vegetation index from last week shows that much of the belt saw the conditions decline
Vegetation Health Change
We see serious deficits compared to a year ago for most of the belt.
Grain Market News
May Corn Chart
Corn prices pushed to a new high early last night and then pulled back going lower and then closed unchanged on the day.
The chart looks good with the new high, but prices closed unchanged.
How high the market goes is determined by the weather.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices consolidated in late May as the weather turned dryer.
Then the market rallied in early June and then last week as crop conditions were falling the market rallied sharply.
This is a weather market; everything depends on the weather.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices consolidated today; it was an inside trading day.
If corn and beans continue to rally, wheat could easily start to move towards the $9 level.
Looking at the wheat chart alone, it does look good.
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