The most recent drought monitor shows severe drought and if we draw that line that arches from Chicago down towards KC, north and west of that line is where drought is some prevalent. South and east of that line for the most part has pretty good soil moisture although we mentioned parts of the Delta are starting to dry out.

The U.S. drought monitor came out this morning and shows ongoing drought in the northwestern belt and northern Plains, and severe drought in the northwest Pacific. In fact drought conditions expanded in much of the northwestern belt over the past week.

This table shows topsoil moisture over the last 18 years and how its developed through the course of the growing season. This year the U.S was unusually dry in May during planting and that allowed for very good planting conditions and very little prevent plant. Then we got some rain in late May, things improved. Then the soil dried out again in June. Then we got some rain in late June into mid July and this improved. Now we’re starting to dry out again. It’s this roller coaster weather that’s creating the roller coaster prices. At 36% short to very short, we’re one of the drier years we’ve seen since the drought year of 2012 but its not too far off the long term average.

This table shows the topsoil moisture in the short to very short category. The darker the yellow, tan, or brown the shorter the topsoil moisture. In the eastern belt for the most part no real significant moisture challenges and in fact, excessive moisture in IL, IN, MI, and MO are drying out and that is good news in the eastern belt. In the central belt, MN remains dry. That’s been a concern for about the last 2 months in MN. IA has been a little bit of an on again, off again. They got dry in May and then got really good rains at the end of May. Then they got dry at the beginning of June but then got some rain in late June and now they’re starting to dry out again in IA going from 33% short-very short to 53% short-very short this week. Keep in mind, so far this week has been dry in IA and temperatures are warmer by 5-8 degrees versus a week ago. IA could become extremely short of topsoil moisture if rains don’t fall by the end of the week. The Plain states, NE, KS, CO, and OK are starting to see some dryness develop as well. It’s not a severe as the northern Plains but the central Plains will need to be monitored over the next week or so. This chart shows topsoil moisture and it’s a weighted average for the U.S. corn and bean production areas. Last week the moisture was 28% for the corn and bean belt. That has gone to 35% and could go to into the 40’s next week if we don’t get rain.

This map shows the drought monitor class change. Areas in green are areas where the drought has improved. Areas in yellow are where drought has gotten worse. Eastern SD, eastern NE, western IA, and portions of southern MN has seen some improvement. But we’ve also seen some deterioration in western MN, southern/southwestern NE, and down into the central Plains.